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Inference for Dirichlet process hierarchical models is typically performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which can be roughly categorised into marginal and conditional methods. The former integrate out analytically the…

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) analysis, it is common to use mixture models to control for unobserved heterogeneity. However, consistent estimation typically requires both restrictions on the support of unobserved heterogeneity and a…

Spike-and-slab and horseshoe regression are arguably the most popular Bayesian variable selection approaches for linear regression models. However, their performance can deteriorate if outliers and heteroskedasticity are present in the…

Predicting species persistence within ecological communities is a fundamental challenge for both empirical and theoretical ecology. Existing methods span from mechanistic models, whose parameters are difficult to estimate from data, to…

Marked point process data arise when events occur in a space with event-level marks. We study clustering of replicated marked Poisson point processes and introduce Dirichlet process mixtures of marked Poisson point processes, a Bayesian…

Collective motion is one of the most ubiquitous behaviours displayed by social organisms and has led to the development of numerous models. Recent advances in the understanding of sensory system and information processing by animals impel…

1. Species distribution models and maps from large-scale biodiversity data are necessary for conservation management. One current issue is that biodiversity data are prone to taxonomic misclassifications. Methods to account for these…

Empirical networks are often globally sparse, with a small average number of connections per node, when compared to the total size of the network. However, this sparsity tends not to be homogeneous, and networks can also be locally dense,…

Community detection has been an active research area for decades. Among all probabilistic models, Stochastic Block Model has been the most popular one. This paper introduces a novel probabilistic model: RW-HDP, based on random walks and…

Self-organisation of individuals within large collectives occurs throughout biology. Mathematical models can help elucidate the individual-level mechanisms behind these dynamics, but analytical tractability often comes at the cost of…

Capture-recapture data are often collected when abundance estimation is of interest. In the presence of unobserved individual heterogeneity, specified on a continuous scale for the capture probabilities, the likelihood is not generally…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

Dirichlet process mixtures are flexible non-parametric models, particularly suited to density estimation and probabilistic clustering. In this work we study the posterior distribution induced by Dirichlet process mixtures as the sample size…

This paper introduces the Mixed Aggregate Preference Logit (MAPL, pronounced "maple'') model, a novel class of discrete choice models that leverages machine learning to model unobserved heterogeneity in discrete choice analysis. The…

To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences…

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…

Differential privacy is the de-facto privacy standard in data analysis. The classic model of differential privacy considers the data to be static. The dynamic setting, called differential privacy under continual observation, captures many…

To scale non-parametric extensions of probabilistic topic models such as Latent Dirichlet allocation to larger data sets, practitioners rely increasingly on parallel and distributed systems. In this work, we study data-parallel training for…