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Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible distributions over functions that enable high-level assumptions about unknown functions to be encoded in a parsimonious, flexible and general way. Although elegant, the application of GPs is limited by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-06 Thang D. Bui , Josiah Yan , Richard E. Turner

Understanding which concepts models can and cannot represent has been fundamental to many tasks: from effective and responsible use of models to detecting out of distribution data. We introduce Gaussian process probes (GPP), a unified and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Zi Wang , Alexander Ku , Jason Baldridge , Thomas L. Griffiths , Been Kim

Supply chain networks in enterprises are typically composed of complex topological graphs involving various types of nodes and edges, accommodating numerous products with considerable demand and supply variability. However, as supply chain…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-12 Hyung-il Ahn , Santiago Olivar , Hershel Mehta , Young Chol Song

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-15 Hongqiao Wang , Jinglai Li

Multi-task learning leverages shared information among data sets to improve the learning performance of individual tasks. The paper applies this framework for data where each task is a phase-shifted periodic time series. In particular, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Yuyang Wang , Roni Khardon , Pavlos Protopapas

The class of Gibbs point processes (GPP) is a large class of spatial point processes able to model both clustered and repulsive point patterns. They are specified by their conditional intensity, which for a point pattern $\mathbf{x}$ and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Ismaïla Ba , Jean-François Coeurjolly , Francisco Cuevas-Pacheco

We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-01 Paolo Villani , Jörg Unger , Martin Weiser

In application areas where data generation is expensive, Gaussian processes are a preferred supervised learning model due to their high data-efficiency. Particularly in model-based control, Gaussian processes allow the derivation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Armin Lederer , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Many applications require optimizing an unknown, noisy function that is expensive to evaluate. We formalize this task as a multi-armed bandit problem, where the payoff function is either sampled from a Gaussian process (GP) or has low RKHS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Niranjan Srinivas , Andreas Krause , Sham M. Kakade , Matthias Seeger

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Masahiro Tanaka

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-14 Yue Wu , Jose Miguel Hernandez Lobato , Zoubin Ghahramani

We propose a novel actor-critic, model-free reinforcement learning algorithm which employs a Bayesian method of parameter space exploration to solve environments. A Gaussian process is used to learn the expected return of a policy given the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Ashish Rao , Bidipta Sarkar , Tejas Narayanan

Multi-task learning requires accurate identification of the correlations between tasks. In real-world time-series, tasks are rarely perfectly temporally aligned; traditional multi-task models do not account for this and subsequent errors in…

We propose a Gaussian Process (GP)-based policy iteration framework for addressing both forward and inverse problems in Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman (HJB) equations and mean field games (MFGs). Policy iteration is formulated as an alternating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Xianjin Yang , Jingguo Zhang

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-30 Jasper Snoek , Hugo Larochelle , Ryan P. Adams

We introduce a novel formulation of motion planning, for continuous-time trajectories, as probabilistic inference. We first show how smooth continuous-time trajectories can be represented by a small number of states using sparse Gaussian…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-11-26 Mustafa Mukadam , Jing Dong , Xinyan Yan , Frank Dellaert , Byron Boots

Adaptive learning is necessary for non-stationary environments where the learning machine needs to forget past data distribution. Efficient algorithms require a compact model update to not grow in computational burden with the incoming data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Vanessa Gómez-Verdejo , Emilio Parrado-Hernández , Manel Martínez-Ramón

In many areas of science and engineering, discovering the governing differential equations from the noisy experimental data is an essential challenge. It is also a critical step in understanding the physical phenomena and prediction of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Jiuhai Chen , Lulu Kang , Guang Lin

Thompson sampling (TS) is a simple, effective stochastic policy in Bayesian decision making. It samples the posterior belief about the reward profile and optimizes the sample to obtain a candidate decision. In continuous optimization, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Taiwo A. Adebiyi , Bach Do , Ruda Zhang

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a non-parametric, Bayesian framework to approximate complex models. Standard GP regression can lead to an unbounded model in which some points can take infeasible values. We introduce a new GP method that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-04 Didem Kochan , Xiu Yang