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Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models, also called Bayesian networks, impose conditional independence constraints on a multivariate probability distribution, and are widely used in probabilistic reasoning, machine learning and causal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-20 Robin J. Evans

We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Thom Badings , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Ufuk Topcu , Nils Jansen

Ancestral graphs can encode conditional independence relations that arise in directed acyclic graph (DAG) models with latent and selection variables. However, for any ancestral graph, there may be several other graphs to which it is Markov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 R. Ayesha Ali , Thomas S. Richardson , Peter Spirtes

We give methods for Bayesian inference of directed acyclic graphs, DAGs, and the induced causal effects from passively observed complete data. Our methods build on a recent Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for learning Bayesian networks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-19 Jussi Viinikka , Antti Hyttinen , Johan Pensar , Mikko Koivisto

The asymptotic normality in multi-dimension of the nonparametric estimator of the transition probabilities of a Markov renewal chain is proved, and is applied to that of other nonparametric estimators involved with the associated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-11 Hiroki Ogata , Luis Iván Hernández Ruíz , Kouji Yano

We present a graphical approach to deriving inequality constraints for directed acyclic graph (DAG) models, where some variables are unobserved. In particular we show that the observed distribution of a discrete model is always restricted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-14 Robin J. Evans

We propose generalizations of a number of standard network models, including the classic random graph, the configuration model, and the stochastic block model, to the case of time-varying networks. We assume that the presence and absence of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-05-02 Xiao Zhang , Cristopher Moore , M. E. J. Newman

We introduce a new random graph model motivated by biological questions relating to speciation. This random graph is defined as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain on the space of graphs on $\{1, \ldots, n\}$. The dynamics of this…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-24 François Bienvenu , Florence Débarre , Amaury Lambert

Large continuous-time Markov chains with exponentially small transition rates arise in modeling complex systems in physics, chemistry and biology. We propose a constructive graph-algorithmic approach to determine the sequence of critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-01 Tingyue Gan , Maria Cameron

The two-parameter Macdonald polynomials are a central object of algebraic combinatorics and representation theory. We give a Markov chain on partitions of k with eigenfunctions the coefficients of the Macdonald polynomials when expanded in…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-28 Persi Diaconis , Arun Ram

Although asymptotic analyses of undirected network models based on degree sequences have started to appear in recent literature, it remains an open problem to study statistical properties of directed network models. In this paper, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-13 Ting Yan , Chenlei Leng , Ji Zhu

An intervention may have an effect on units other than those to which it was administered. This phenomenon is called interference and it usually goes unmodeled. In this paper, we propose to combine Lauritzen-Wermuth-Frydenberg and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-08 Jose M. Peña

The invariance properties of interventional distributions relative to the observational distribution, and how these properties allow us to refine Markov equivalence classes (MECs) of DAGs, is central to causal DAG discovery algorithms that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Liam Solus

Representing the conditional independences present in a multivariate random vector via graphs has found widespread use in applications, and such representations are popularly known as graphical models or Markov random fields. These models…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-02 David Montague , Bala Rajaratnam

In multivariate statistics, acyclic mixed graphs with directed and bidirected edges are widely used for compact representation of dependence structures that can arise in the presence of hidden (i.e., latent or unobserved) variables. Indeed,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Christopher J. Fox , Andreas Käufl , Mathias Drton

We give a category-theoretic treatment of causal models that formalizes the syntax for causal reasoning over a directed acyclic graph (DAG) by associating a free Markov category with the DAG in a canonical way. This framework enables us to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Yimu Yin , Jiji Zhang

We propose an alternative proof concerning necessary and sufficient conditions to split the problem of searching for d-separators and building the skeleton of a DAG into small problems for every node of a separation tree T. The proof is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-07-02 Mohammad Ali Javidian , Marco Valtorta

Full Bayesian computational inference for model determination in undirected graphical models is currently restricted to decomposable graphs, except for problems of very small scale. In this paper we develop new, more efficient methodology…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-05 Peter J. Green , Alun Thomas

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Ricardo Silva , Zoubin Ghahramani

Causal discovery from observational data is a challenging task that can only be solved up to a set of equivalent solutions, called an equivalence class. Such classes, which are often large in size, encode uncertainties about the orientation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Philippe Brouillard , Perouz Taslakian , Alexandre Lacoste , Sebastien Lachapelle , Alexandre Drouin