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Uncertainty quantification using Bayesian methods is a growing area of research. Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a recent development which combines the predictions from multiple models such that each model's best qualities are preserved in…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2023-11-01 Kevin Ingles , Dananjaya Liyanage , Alexandra C. Semposki , John C. Yannotty

This paper applies the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) statistical ensemble technique to estimate small molecule solvation free energies. There is a wide range of methods available for predicting solvation free energies, ranging from…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2016-12-16 Luke J. Gosink , Christopher C. Overall , Sarah M. Reehl , Paul D. Whitney , David L. Mobley , Nathan A. Baker

The functional generalized additive model (FGAM) was recently proposed in McLean et al. (2013) as a more flexible alternative to the common functional linear model (FLM) for regressing a scalar on functional covariates. In this paper, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-29 Mathew W. McLean , Fabian Scheipl , Giles Hooker , Sonja Greven , David Ruppert

Gaussian graphical models provide a powerful framework to reveal the conditional dependency structure between multivariate variables. The process of uncovering the conditional dependency network is known as structure learning. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Lucas Vogels , Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , S. Ilker Birbil

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly…

General Economics · Economics 2019-06-12 Donovan Platt

We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-05 Khalil A Hall-Hooper , Arvind K Saibaba , Julianne Chung , Scot M Miller

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-29 Charles Gadd , Sara Wade , Akeel Shah , Dimitris Grammatopoulos

Latent variable models are an elegant framework for capturing rich probabilistic dependencies in many applications. However, current approaches typically parametrize these models using conditional probability tables, and learning relies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Ankur P. Parikh , Le Song , Mariya Ishteva , Gabi Teodoru , Eric P. Xing

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) methods are widely used for parameter estimation in complex models where evaluating the likelihood is challenging but generating simulations is relatively straightforward. However, these methods…

We develop a model-based empirical Bayes approach to variable selection problems in which the number of predictors is very large, possibly much larger than the number of responses (the so-called 'large p, small n' problem). We consider the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-14 Haim Y. Bar , James G. Booth , Martin T. Wells

Joint models have received increasing attention during recent years with extensions into various directions; numerous hazard functions, different association structures, linear and non-linear longitudinal trajectories amongst others. Many…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-29 Janet Van Niekerk , Haakon Bakka , Haavard Rue

Regression models that incorporate smooth functions of predictor variables to explain the relationships with a response variable have gained widespread usage and proved successful in various applications. By incorporating smooth functions…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-19 Natalya Pya Arnqvist

Gaussian processes that can be decomposed into a smooth mean function and a stationary autocorrelated noise process are considered and a fully automatic nonparametric method to simultaneous estimation of mean and auto-covariance functions…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-19 Tatyana Krivobokova , Paulo Serra , Francisco Rosales , Karolina Klockmann

Generalized structural equations models (GSEMs) [Peters and Halpern 2021], are, as the name suggests, a generalization of structural equations models (SEMs). They can deal with (among other things) infinitely many variables with infinite…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-12-22 Joseph Y. Halpern , Spencer Peters

In recent years, bankruptcy forecasting has gained lot of attention from researchers as well as practitioners in the field of financial risk management. For bankruptcy prediction, various approaches proposed in the past and currently in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-05 Amir Mukeri , Habibullah Shaikh , D. P. Gaikwad

Missing data occur in many types of studies and typically complicate the analysis. Multiple imputation, either using joint modelling or the more flexible fully conditional specification approach, are popular and work well in standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-02 Nicole S. Erler , Dimitris Rizopoulos , Emmanuel M. E. H. Lesaffre

For many decades now, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has been a popular framework to systematically account for model uncertainty that arises in situations when multiple competing models are available to describe the same or similar…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-29 Vojtech Kejzlar , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Mookyong Son , Tapabrata Maiti

Extended resolution shows that auxiliary variables are very powerful in theory. However, attempts to exploit this potential in practice have had limited success. One reasonably effective method in this regard is bounded variable addition…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Andrew Haberlandt , Harrison Green , Marijn J. H. Heule

The recent article "A Bayesian conjugate gradient method" by Cockayne, Oates, Ipsen, and Girolami proposes an approximately Bayesian iterative procedure for the solution of a system of linear equations, based on the conjugate gradient…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-06-26 T. J. Sullivan