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It was recently proved that any strictly stationary stochastic process can be viewed as an autoregressive process of order one with coloured noise. Furthermore, it was proved that, using this characterisation, one can define closed form…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-06 Marko Voutilainen , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

We derive an efficient stochastic algorithm for inverse problems that present an unknown linear forcing term and a set of nonlinear parameters to be recovered. It is assumed that the data is noisy and that the linear part of the problem is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Darko Volkov

We present a method of parameter estimation for large class of nonlinear systems, namely those in which the state consists of output derivatives and the flow is linear in the parameter. The method, which solves for the unknown parameter by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-16 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

We introduce the elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, which is a generalisation of the well-known univariate OU process to bivariate time series. This process maps out elliptical stochastic oscillations over time in the complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Adam M. Sykulski , Sofia C. Olhede , Hanna M. Sykulska-Lawrence

Methods of estimation and forecasting for stationary models are well known in classical time series analysis. However, stationarity is an idealization which, in practice, can at best hold as an approximation, but for many time series may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-08 Shreyan Ganguly , Peter F. Craigmile

We consider stationary autoregressive processes with coefficients restricted to an ellipsoid, which includes autoregressive processes with absolutely summable coefficients. We provide consistency results under different norms for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-09 Alessio Sancetta

A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-11-05 K. Triantafyllopoulos

This paper provides an algorithm for simulating improper (or noncircular) complex-valued stationary Gaussian processes. The technique utilizes recently developed methods for multivariate Gaussian processes from the circulant embedding…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-16 Adam M. Sykulski , Donald B. Percival

In this work, we propose a high-order multiscale method for an elliptic model problem with rough and possibly highly oscillatory coefficients. Convergence rates of higher order are obtained using the regularity of the right-hand side only.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Zhaonan Dong , Moritz Hauck , Roland Maier

We propose novel parameter estimation algorithms for a class of dynamical systems with nonlinear parametrization. The class is initially restricted to smooth monotonic functions with respect to a linear functional of the parameters. We show…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ivan Tyukin , Danil Prokhorov , Cees van Leeuwen

We propose a general strategy for reduced order modeling of systems that display highly nonlinear oscillations. By considering a continuous family of forced periodic orbits defined in relation to a stable fixed point and subsequently…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-02-07 Dan Wilson , Kai Sun

Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-13 Suryadeepto Nag

There are three equivalent ways of representing two jointly observed real-valued signals: as a bivariate vector signal, as a single complex-valued signal, or as two analytic signals known as the rotary components. Each representation has…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-16 Adam M. Sykulski , Sofia C. Olhede , Jonathan M. Lilly , Jeffrey J. Early

We consider a complex-valued linear mixture model, under discrete weakly stationary processes. We recover latent components of interest, which have undergone a linear mixing. We study asymptotic properties of a classical unmixing estimator,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Niko Lietzén , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

In present paper we suggest a new universal approach to study complex systems by microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic methods. We discuss new possibilities of extracting information on nonstationarity, unsteadiness and non-Markovity of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 Renat M. Yulmetyev , Anatolii V. Mokshin , Peter Hänggi

Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-20 John Mern , Peter Morales , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Motivated by a variety of applications, high-dimensional time series have become an active topic of research. In particular, several methods and finite-sample theories for individual stable autoregressive processes with known lag have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-06 Somnath Chakraborty , Johannes Lederer , Rainer von Sachs

Although classical spectral analysis is a natural approach to characterise linear systems, it cannot describe a chaotic dynamics. Here, we propose the ordinal spectrum, a method based on a spectral transformation of symbolic sequences, to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-09-08 Mario Chavez , Johann H. Martinez

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Fabio Gobbi , Sabrina Mulinacci

An emerging way of tackling the dimensionality issues arising in the modeling of a multivariate process is to assume that the inherent data structure can be captured by a graph. Nevertheless, though state-of-the-art graph-based methods have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-13 Andreas Loukas , Nathanael Perraudin
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