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We are in the middle of a remarkable rise in the use and capability of artificial intelligence. Much of this growth has been fueled by the success of deep learning architectures: models that map from observables to outputs via multiple…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-02 Jason Hartford , Greg Lewis , Kevin Leyton-Brown , Matt Taddy

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV is expected to be related to the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

Pricing based on individual customer characteristics is widely used to maximize sellers' revenues. This work studies offline personalized pricing under endogeneity using an instrumental variable approach. Standard instrumental variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Rui Miao , Zhengling Qi , Cong Shi , Lin Lin

The instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) model (Chernozhukov and Hansen, 2005) is a popular tool for estimating causal quantile effects with endogenous covariates. However, estimation is complicated by the non-smoothness and…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-14 Hiroaki Kaido , Kaspar Wuthrich

We study the problem of nonparametric instrumental variable regression with observed covariates, which we refer to as NPIV-O. Compared with standard nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV), the additional observed covariates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Zikai Shen , Zonghao Chen , Dimitri Meunier , Ingo Steinwart , Arthur Gretton , Zhu Li

To reach human level intelligence, learning algorithms need to incorporate causal reasoning. But identifying causality, and particularly counterfactual reasoning, remains elusive. In this paper, we make progress on counterfactual inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Marc Braun , Jose M. Peña , Adel Daoud

This paper studies the confounding effects from the unmeasured confounders and the imbalance of observed confounders in IV regression and aims at unbiased causal effect estimation. Recently, nonlinear IV estimators were proposed to allow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-21 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Bo Li , Fei Wu

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for the causal effect when the cause is corrupted by error. We do so by generalizing estimation in the instrumental variable setting. Despite significant work on regression with measurement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Yuchen Zhu , Limor Gultchin , Arthur Gretton , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva

In a nonparametric instrumental regression model, we strengthen the conventional moment independence assumption towards full statistical independence between instrument and error term. This allows us to prove identification results and…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-13 Isaac Loh

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

We study categorical instrumental variable (IV) models with instrument, treatment, and outcome taking finitely many values. We derive a simple closed-form characterization of the set of joint distributions of potential outcomes that are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Yilin Song , F. Richard Guo , K. C. Gary Chan , Thomas S. Richardson

We consider debiased inference on finite-dimensional functionals of infinite-dimensional least-squares solutions to inverse problems as a way to avoid having to assume exact solutions exist. Such assumptions are substantive and not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-27 Zikai Shen , Nathan Kallus , Dimitri Meunier , Houssam Zenati , Arthur Gretton , Aurélien Bibaut

In observational studies, instrumental variable (IV) methods are commonly applied when there exists some unmeasured covariates. In Mendelian Randomization (MR), constructing an allele score by using many single nucleotide polymorphisms…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-22 Shunichiro Orihara

Instrumental variables (eliminate the bias that afflicts least-squares identification of dynamical systems through noisy data, yet traditionally relies on external instruments that are seldom available for nonlinear time series data. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

In this paper, we propose a simple method for testing identifying assumptions in parametric separable models, namely treatment exogeneity, instrument validity, and/or homoskedasticity. We show that the testable implications can be written…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-17 Leonard Goff , Désiré Kédagni , Huan Wu

We develop a general estimation and inference procedure for the common parameters in linear panel data regression models with nonparametric two-way specification of unobserved heterogeneity. The procedure takes as input any first-step…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-08 Hugo Freeman , Dennis Kristensen

In this paper, I study the nonparametric identification and estimation of the marginal effect of an endogenous variable $X$ on the outcome variable $Y$, given a potentially mismeasured instrument variable $W^*$, without assuming linearity…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-23 Shaomin Wu

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-03-20 Guohua Feng , Jiti Gao , Bin Peng

An adaptive nonparametric estimation procedure is constructed for the estimation problem of heteroscedastic regression when the noise variance depends on the unknown regression. A non-asymptotic upper bound for a quadratic risk (an oracle…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Leonid Galtchouk , Serguey Pergamenshchikov
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