Related papers: On the aggregation of experts' information in Bonu…
This article, in a first step, considers two Bayes estimators for the relativity premium of a given Bonus--Malus system. It then develops a linear relativity premium that closes, in the sense of weighted mean square error loss, to such…
In decision-making under uncertainty, several criteria have been studied to aggregate the performance of a solution over multiple possible scenarios. This paper introduces a novel variant of ordered weighted averaging (OWA) for optimization…
The claim experience of the past is a very important information to calculate the fair price of an insurance contract. In a lot of European countries for instance the prices for motor car insurance depend on the number of claims the driver…
We consider the concept of equilibrium in economic systems from statistical mechanics viewpoint. A new method is suggested for computing the premium on this basis. The B\"{u}hlmann economic premium principle is derived as a special case of…
The use of bonus-malus systems in compulsory liability automobile insurance is a worldwide applied method for premium pricing. If certain assumptions hold, like the conditional Poisson distribution of the policyholders claim number, then an…
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of…
In this manuscript we propose a method for pricing insurance products that cover not only traditional risks, but also unforeseen ones. By considering the Poisson process parameter to be a mixed random variable, we capture the heterogeneity…
This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand…
This project works with the risk model developed by Li et al. (2015) and quests modelling, estimating and pricing insurance for risks brought in by innovative technologies, or other emerging or latent risks. The model considers two…
Decisions under uncertainty or with multiple objectives usually require the decision maker to formulate a preference regarding risks or trade-offs. If this preference is known, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) criterion can be applied…
In many areas of industry and society, e.g., energy, healthcare, logistics, agents collect vast amounts of data that they deem proprietary. These data owners extract predictive information of varying quality and relevance from data…
The risk premium of a policy is the sum of the pure premium and the risk loading. In the classification ratemaking process, generalized linear models are usually used to calculate pure premiums, and various premium principles are applied to…
Experience rating in insurance uses a Bayesian credibility model to upgrade the current premiums of a contract by taking into account policyholders' attributes and their claim history. Most data-driven models used for this task are…
The bonus-malus system (BMS) is a widely used premium adjustment mechanism based on policyholder's claim history. Most auto insurance BMSs assume that policyholders in the same bonus-malus (BM) level share the same a posteriori risk…
There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or $w$-prior) which unifies objective Bayes and…
Based on the recent paper by Delong et al. (2021), two distributions for the total claims amount (loss cost) are considered: Compound Poisson-gamma (CPG) and Tweedie. Each is used as an underlying distribution in the Bonus-Malus Scale (BMS)…
In the context of multicriteria decision making, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) functions play a crucial role in aggregating multiple criteria evaluations into an overall assessment supporting the decision makers' choice. Determining…
We consider computation of market values of bonus payments in multi-state with-profit life insurance. The bonus scheme consists of additional benefits bought according to a dividend strategy that depends on the past realization of financial…
The primary objective of this paper is to present an approach for recommender systems that can assimilate ranking to the voters or rankers so that recommendation can be made by giving priority to experts suggestion over usual…
We revisit the classical, full-fledged Bayesian model averaging (BMA) paradigm to ensemble pre-trained and/or lightly-finetuned foundation models to enhance the classification performance on image and text data. To make BMA tractable under…