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Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-21 Boris David , Gilles Zumbach

Conditional copulas are flexible statistical tools that couple joint conditional and marginal conditional distributions. In a linear regression setting with more than one covariate and two dependent outcomes, we propose the use of additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-31 Avideh Sabeti , Mian Wei , Radu V. Craiu

A new index based on empirical copulas, termed the Copula Statistic (CoS), is introduced for assessing the strength of multivariate dependence and for testing statistical independence. New properties of the copulas are proved. They allow us…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-22 Mohsen Ben Hassine , Lamine Mili , Kiran Karra

Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-11 Davide Lauria , Svetlozar T. Rachev , A. Alexandre Trindade

Electricity generation from burning fossil fuels is one of the major contributors to global warming. Renewable energy sources are a viable alternative to produce electrical energy and to reduce the emission from the power industry. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Md Amimul Ehsan

In many practical scenarios, including finance, environmental sciences, system reliability, etc., it is often of interest to study the various notion of negative dependence among the observed variables. A new bivariate copula is proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-18 Shyamal Ghosh , Prajamitra Bhuyan , Maxim Finkelstein

Factor analysis has been extensively used to reveal the dependence structures among multivariate variables, offering valuable insight in various fields. However, it cannot incorporate the spatial heterogeneity that is typically present in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Yanxiu Jin , Tomoya Wakayama , Renhe Jiang , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We extend generalized functional linear models under independence to a situation in which a functional covariate is related to a scalar response variable that exhibits spatial dependence-a complex yet prevalent phenomenon. For estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 Sooran Kim , Mark S. Kaiser , Xiongtao Dai

In this work, we propose a non-iterative Gaussian transformation strategy based on copula function, which doesn't require some commonly seen restrictive assumptions in the previous studies such as the elliptically symmetric distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Rongxiang Rui , Maozai Tian

For a typical insurance portfolio, the claims process for a short period, typically one year, is characterized by observing frequency of claims together with the associated claims severities. The collective risk model describes this…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-12 Rosy Oh , Himchan Jeong , Jae Youn Ahn , Emiliano A. Valdez

A novel copula-based multivariate panel ordinal model is developed to estimate structural relations among components of well-being. Each ordinal time-series is modelled using a copula-based Markov model to relate the marginal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-02 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos , Emmanouil Mentzakis

We present a vine copula based composite likelihood approach to model spatial dependencies, which allows to perform prediction at arbitrary locations. This approach combines established methods to model (spatial) dependencies. On the one…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-04 Tobias Michael Erhardt , Claudia Czado , Ulf Schepsmeier

Copula mixed models for trivariate (or bivariate) meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies accounting (or not) for disease prevalence have been proposed in the biostatistics literature to synthesize information. However, many…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-12 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

Key to effective generic, or "black-box", variational inference is the selection of an approximation to the target density that balances accuracy and speed. Copula models are promising options, but calibration of the approximation can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-01 Michael Stanley Smith , Rubén Loaiza-Maya

We are studying the problems of modeling and inference for multivariate count time series data with Poisson marginals. The focus is on linear and log-linear models. For studying the properties of such processes we develop a novel conceptual…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-10 Paul Doukhan , Konstantinos Fokianos , Bård Støve , Dag Tjøstheim

This paper proposes a modelling strategy to infer the impact of a covariate on the dependence structure of right-censored clustered event time data. The joint survival function of the event times is modelled using a parametric conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-07 Candida Geerdens , Elif Fidan Acar , Paul Janssen

A new class of copulas based on order statistics was introduced by Baker (2008). Here, further properties of the bivariate and multivariate copulas are described, such as that of likelihood ratio dominance (LRD), and further bivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-03 Rose Baker

Analysis of multivariate time series is a common problem in areas like finance and economics. The classical tool for this purpose are vector autoregressive models. These however are limited to the modeling of linear and symmetric…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-04-05 Eike Christian Brechmann , Claudia Czado

Copula models have become one of the most widely used tools in the applied modelling of multivariate data. Similarly, Bayesian methods are increasingly used to obtain efficient likelihood-based inference. However, to date, there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-13 Michael Stanley Smith

Multivariate mixed-type outcomes are difficult to model jointly, and additional complexity arises when both marginal effects and dependence structures vary with a covariate such as age or time. Existing approaches often impose restrictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Yujin Jeong , Seonghyun Jeong