Related papers: Sandwiching the marginal likelihood using bidirect…
Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and its stochastic gradient versions are powerful algorithms for sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions. To sample from a distribution with density $\pi(\theta)\propto \exp(-U(\theta)) $, LMC…
Frequentist and likelihood methods of inference based on the multivariate skew-normal model encounter several technical difficulties with this model. In spite of the popularity of this class of densities, there are no broadly satisfactory…
This work considers the problem of sampling from a probability distribution known up to a normalization constant while satisfying a set of statistical constraints specified by the expected values of general nonlinear functions. This problem…
The order of convergence of the Monte Carlo method is 1/2 which means that we need quadruple samples to decrease the error in half in the numerical simulation. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods reach the same order of error by spending less…
This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…
In this article, we present a review of the recent developments on the topic of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm, in the paradigm of applications in financial engineering. We specifically focus on the recent studies conducted in two…
We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…
We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form $\mathbb{P}[\mathbb{E}[X|Y] \!\geq\!0]\!=\!\mathbb{E}[\textrm{H}(\mathbb{E}[X|Y])]$ where $\textrm{H}$ is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for…
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood is used for model selection and averaging, yet it is often challenging to compute accurately for complex models. Approaches such as bridge sampling, while effective, may suffer from issues of…
A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings,…
We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential L\'{e}vy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate…
We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…
The main focus of the analysts who deal with clustered data is usually not on the clustering variables, and hence the group-specific parameters are treated as nuisance. If a fixed effects formulation is preferred and the total number of…
We describe a Monte Carlo method to approximate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), when there are missing data and the observed data likelihood is not available in closed form. This method uses simulated missing data that are…
The efficient evaluation of high-dimensional integrals is of importance in both theoretical and practical fields of science, such as data science, statistical physics, and machine learning. However, exact computation methods suffer from the…
We compare the integration error of Monte Carlo (MC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for approximating the normalizing constant of posterior distributions and certain marginal likelihoods. In doing so, we characterize the dependency of…
Monte Carlo simulations are widely used in many areas including particle accelerators. In this lecture, after a short introduction and reviewing of some statistical backgrounds, we will discuss methods such as direct inversion, rejection…
Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods struggle to explore distributions that are concentrated in the neighbourhood of low-dimensional structures. These pathologies naturally occur in a number of situations. For example, they are common…
In this paper, we consider the implementation of multi-level Monte Carlo method to a stochastic optimal control problem with log-normal coefficients and its surrogate model problem. From the perspective of two optimization problems, i.e.,…
We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…