Related papers: Network-Based Analysis of a Small Ebola Outbreak
Dynamic models - often deterministic in nature - were used to estimate the basic reproductive number, R_0, of the 2014-5 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic outbreak in West Africa. Estimates of R_0 were then used to project the likelihood…
Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…
We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…
Infectious disease remains, despite centuries of work to control and mitigate its effects, a major problem facing humanity. This paper reviews the mathematical modelling of infectious disease epidemics on networks, starting from the…
We introduce a new methodology to analyze the evolution of epidemic time series, which is based on the construction of epidemic networks. First, we translate the time series into ordinal patterns containing information about local…
We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…
Modelling epidemics using contact networks provides a significant improvement over classical compartmental models by explicitly incorporating the network of contacts. However, while network-based models describe disease spread on a given…
Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…
The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades. Here we find…
Coalescent models are used to study the transmission dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens from molecular sequence data obtained from infected individuals. However coalescent parameters, such as effective population size, offer limited…
We use a multivariate formulation of sequential Monte Carlo filter that utilizes mechanistic models for Ebola virus propagation and available incidence data to simultaneously estimate the disease progression states and the model parameters.…
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
A statistical model assuming a preferential attachment network, which is generated by adding nodes sequentially according to a few simple rules, usually describes real-life networks better than a model assuming, for example, a Bernoulli…
Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed at stopping or ameliorating the spread…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
The spread of Ebola virus in 2014 is unprecedented. The epidemic is still affecting West Africa, exacerbated by extraordinary socioeconomic disadvantages and health system inadequacies. With the aim of understanding, predicting, and control…
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…
To understand the contact patterns of a population -- who is in contact with whom, and when the contacts happen -- is crucial for modeling outbreaks of infectious disease. Traditional theoretical epidemiology assumes that any individual can…