Related papers: Prediction of Solar Flare Size and Time-to-Flare U…

The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…

Solar flares are among the most severe space weather phenomena, and they have the capacity to generate radiation storms and radio disruptions on Earth. The accurate prediction of solar flare events remains a significant challenge, requiring…

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 h. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on…

We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and…

We attempt to forecast M-and X-class solar flares using a machine-learning algorithm, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), and four years of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, the first instrument…

Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single…

We develop forecast models of daily probability of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten…

With machine learning entering into the awareness of the heliophysics community, solar flare prediction has become a topic of increased interest. Although machine learning models have advanced with each successive publication, the input…

Based on several magnetic nonpotentiality parameters obtained from the vector photospheric active region magnetograms obtained with the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope at the Huairou Solar Observing Station over two solar cycles, a machine…

Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, which occur due to a rapid destabilization and reconnection of the magnetic field. While pre-flare signatures and trends have been investigated from magnetic observations prior…

Large scale solar eruptions significantly impact space weather and damages space-based human infrastructures. It is necessary to predict large scale solar eruptions, which will enable us to protect our vulnerable infrastructures of modern…

Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…

The existing flare prediction primarily relies on photospheric magnetic field parameters from the entire active region (AR), such as Space-Weather HMI Activity Region Patches (SHARP) parameters. However, these parameters may not capture the…

Solar flares, especially the M- and X-class flares, are often associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). They are the most important sources of space weather effects, that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. Thus it is…

Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…

A solar active region (AR) that produces at least one M- or X-class major flare tends to produce multiple flares during its passage across the solar disk. It will be interesting if we can estimate how flare-productive a given major flaring…

Adverse space weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence,…

Prediction of solar flares is an important task in solar physics. The occurrence of solar flares is highly dependent on the structure and the topology of solar magnetic fields. A new method for predicting large (M and X class) flares is…

Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties…

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…