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Predicting future climatic conditions at high spatial resolution is essential for many applications and impact studies in science. Here, we present monthly time series data on precipitation, minimum- and maximum temperature for four…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-27 Dirk Nikolaus Karger , Dirk R. Schmatz , Gabriel Dettling , Niklaus E. Zimmermann

The large underlying assumption of climate models today relies on the basis of a "confident" initial condition, a reasonably plausible snapshot of the Earth for which all future predictions depend on. However, given the inherently chaotic…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-03 Valerie Tsao , Nathaniel W. Chaney , Manolis Veveakis

We introduce a computational framework to statistically infer thermophysical properties of any given wall from in-situ measurements of air temperature and surface heat fluxes. The proposed framework uses these measurements, within a…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-16 Lia De Simon , Marco Iglesias , Benjamin Jones , Christopher Wood

This article introduces novel and practicable Bayesian factor analysis frameworks that are computationally feasible for moderate to large spatiotemporal data. Previous Bayesian analysis of spatiotemporal data has utilized a Bayesian factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

Modelling wildfire occurrences is important for disaster management including prevention, detection and suppression of large catastrophic events. We present a spatial Poisson hurdle model for exploring geographical variation of monthly…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-02 Justin A. Kasin , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

This paper proposes a novel data-driven approach for identifying and modelling areas with similar temperature variations throufigureh clustering and Space-Time AutoRegressive (STAR) models. Using annual temperature data from 168 countries…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-30 Edoardo Otranto

Analyzing and utilizing spatiotemporal big data are essential for studies concerning climate change. However, such data are not fully integrated into climate models owing to limitations in statistical frameworks. Herein, we employ VARENN…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-24 Takeshi Ise , Yurika Oba

The most pronounced climate anomaly of the Holocene was the 8.2 ka cooling event. We present new 230Th/U-ages as well as high-resolution stable isotope and trace element data from three stalagmitesfrom two different cave systems in Germany,…

Building on the phase reduction theory formulated for reaction-diffusion systems with spatial translational symmetry, we develop a data-driven method that reconstructs the spatiotemporal phase dynamics of traveling and oscillating patterns.…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2026-04-28 Takahiro Arai , Toshio Aoyagi , Yoji Kawamura

Climate is known for being characterised by strong non-linearity and chaotic behaviour. Nevertheless, few studies in climate science adopt statistical methods specifically designed for non-stationary or non-linear systems. Here we show how…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-13 Federico Amato , Fabian Guignard , Vincent Humphrey , Mikhail Kanevski

Simulation of rainfall over a region for long time-sequences can be very useful for planning and policy-making, especially in India where the economy is heavily reliant on monsoon rainfall. However, such simulations should be able to…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-04 Adway Mitra

We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-08 Mikkel Bennedsen , Eric Hillebrand , Siem Jan Koopman

It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2010-12-15 J. M. T. Thompson , Jan Sieber

There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…

We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-25 Stefano Castruccio , Joseph Guinness

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-29 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti

Identification of local structure in intensive data -- such as time series, images, and higher dimensional processes -- is an important problem in astronomy. Since the data are typically generated by an inhomogeneous Poisson process, an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Jeffrey D. Scargle

A comparison of northern and southern hemispheric paleotemperature profiles suggests that the Bolling-Allerod Interstadial, Younger Dryas stadial, and subsequent Preboreal warming which occurred at the end of the last ice age were…

General Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Paul A. LaViolette

We present a holistic Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with fully quantified uncertainty. The reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera)…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-23 Niamh Cahill , Andrew C. Kemp , Benjamin P. Horton , Andrew C. Parnell

This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-10 Philipp Otto , Osman Doğan , Süleyman Taşpınar