Related papers: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing…
We propose a method to merge several paleoclimate time series into one that exhibits a consensus on the features of the individual times series. The paleoclimate time series can be noisy, nonuniformly sampled and the dates at which the…
We outline a model and algorithm to perform inference on the palaeoclimate and palaeoclimate volatility from pollen proxy data. We use a novel multivariate non-linear non-Gaussian state space model consisting of an observation equation…
Realistic depictions of past land cover are needed to investigate prehistoric environmental changes, effects of anthropogenic deforestation, and long term land cover-climate feedbacks. Observation based reconstructions of past land cover…
We describe a method for reconstructing spatially explicit maps of seasonal palaeoclimate variables from site-based reconstructions. Using a 3D-Variational technique, the method finds the best statistically unbiased, and spatially…
Paleoclimatology -- the study of past climate -- is relevant beyond climate science itself, such as in archaeology and anthropology for understanding past human dispersal. Information about the Earth's paleoclimate comes from simulations of…
Environmental and climate processes are often distributed over large space-time domains. Their complexity and the amount of available data make modelling and analysis a challenging task. Statistical modelling of environment and climate data…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
The influence of climate on biodiversity is an important ecological question. Various theories try to link climate change to allelic richness and therefore to predict the impact of global warming on genetic diversity. We model the…
In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar…
Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…
We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to paleoclimate reconstruction using borehole temperature profiles. The approach relies on modeling heat conduction in solids via the heat equation with step function, surface boundary…
Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model which produces probabilistic reconstructions of hydroclimatic variability in Queensland Australia. The model provides a standardised approach to hydroclimate reconstruction using multiple…
Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [arXiv:1104.4002]
Accurate maps of past land cover and human land-use are necessary when studying the impact of anthropogenic land-cover changes on climate. Ideally the maps of past land cover would be separated into naturally occurring vegetation and human…
We produce new reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere annually averaged temperature anomalies back to 1000 AD, and explore the effects of including external climate forcings within the reconstruction and of accounting for short-memory and…
Great strides have been made in the field of reconstructing past temperatures based on models relating temperature to temperature-sensitive paleoclimate proxies. One of the goals of such reconstructions is to assess if current climate is…
Fossil-based palaeoclimate reconstruction is an important area of ecological science that has gained momentum in the backdrop of the global climate change debate. The hierarchical Bayesian paradigm provides an interesting platform for…
Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…