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We present the Gaussian process density sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2009-12-25 Ryan Prescott Adams , Iain Murray , David J. C. MacKay

This paper proposes a probabilistic Bayesian formulation for system identification (ID) and estimation of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models. Nonseparable Hamiltonian systems arise in models from diverse…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-09-19 Harsh Sharma , Nicholas Galioto , Alex A. Gorodetsky , Boris Kramer

We develop a Bayesian inference method for diffusions observed discretely and with noise, which is free of discretisation bias. Unlike existing unbiased inference methods, our method does not rely on exact simulation techniques. Instead,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Neil K. Chada , Jordan Franks , Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Matti Vihola

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-02 Karla Monterrubio-Gómez , Lassi Roininen , Sara Wade , Theo Damoulas , Mark Girolami

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-14 Emily B. Fox , Michael C. Hughes , Erik B. Sudderth , Michael I. Jordan

In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference for partially observed fractional Brownian motion (fBM) models. The approach we follow is to time-discretize the hidden process and then to design Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-02 Mohamed Maama , Ajay Jasra , Hernando Ombao

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

We investigate a stochastic version of the synthetic multicellular clock model proposed by Garcia-Ojalvo, Elowitz and Strogatz. By introducing dynamical noise in the model and assuming that the partial observations of the system can be…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-15 Inés P. Mariño , Joaquin Miguez , Alexey Zaikin

This paper presents a new Bayesian model and algorithm for nonlinear unmixing of hyperspectral images. The model proposed represents the pixel reflectances as linear combinations of the endmembers, corrupted by nonlinear (with respect to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-06 Yoann Altmann , Marcelo Pereyra , Stephen McLaughlin

In this paper we propose the first non-parametric Bayesian model using Gaussian Processes to make inference on Poisson Point Processes without resorting to gridding the domain or to introducing latent thinning points. Unlike competing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-30 Yves-Laurent Kom Samo , Stephen Roberts

Mixture models are widely used in modeling heterogeneous data populations. A standard approach of mixture modeling assumes that the mixture component takes a parametric kernel form. In many applications, making parametric assumptions on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Yilei Zhang , Yun Wei , Aritra Guha , XuanLong Nguyen

We propose a flexible stochastic framework for modeling the market share dynamics over time in a multiple markets setting, where firms interact within and between markets. Firms undergo stochastic idiosyncratic shocks, which contract their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-06 Igor Prünster , Matteo Ruggiero

We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Zhongzhen Wang , Petros Dellaportas , Ioannis Kosmidis

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra

Many exact Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have been developed for posterior inference in Bayesian nonparametric models which involve infinite-dimensional priors. However, these methods are not generic and special methodology must be…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-22 Jim E. Griffin

High-throughput characterization often requires estimating parameters and model dimension from experimental data of limited quantity and quality. Such data may result in an ill-posed inverse problem, where multiple sets of parameters and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Abigail N. Poteshman , Jiwon Yun , Tim H. Taminiau , Giulia Galli

A scheme is developed for estimating state-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients in a stochastic differential equation from time-series data. The scheme does not require to specify parametric forms for the drift and diffusion…

Biological Physics · Physics 2012-09-28 Jun Ohkubo

We propose a general modeling framework for marked Poisson processes observed over time or space. The modeling approach exploits the connection of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process intensity with a density function. Nonparametric Dirichlet…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-02 Matthew A. Taddy , Athanasios Kottas

We investigate the class of $\sigma$-stable Poisson-Kingman random probability measures (RPMs) in the context of Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling. This is a large class of discrete RPMs which encompasses most of the the popular…

Computation · Statistics 2018-02-22 María Lomelí , Stefano Favaro , Yee Whye Teh