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We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…
Direct Monte Carlo simulations of the Enskog-Boltzmann equation for a spatially uniform system of smooth inelastic spheres are performed. In order to reach a steady state, the particles are assumed to be under the action of an external…
Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…
Solar activity is studied using a cluster analysis of the time-fluctuations of the sunspot number. It is shown that in an Historic period the high activity components of the solar cycles exhibit strong clustering, whereas in a Modern period…
Cyclostationary linear inverse models (CS-LIMs), generalized versions of the classical (stationary) LIM, are advanced data-driven techniques for extracting the first-order time-dependent dynamics and random forcing relevant information from…
Nonlinear oscillators are commonly encountered in a wide range of physical and engineering systems, exhibiting rich and complex dynamics. Among these, the Van der Pol oscillator is well known for its self-sustained limit cycle behavior.…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Oceanic atmospheric oscillations and climate variability are tightly linked and both exhibit broad band spectral content that ranges, with roughly equal strength, from annual to centennial periodicity. The explanation for variability based…
Understanding multi-decadal variability is an essential goal of climate dynamics. For example, the recent phenomenon referred to as the "global warming hiatus" may reflect a coupling to an intrinsic, pre-industrial, multi-decadal…
We present simulations of stochastic fluid dynamics in the vicinity of a critical endpoint belonging to the universality class of the Ising model. This study is motivated by the challenge of modeling the dynamics of critical fluctuations…
We propose and analyse a mechanism by which $\mathrm{CO}_2$-driven radiative forcing can increase Arctic temperature variability in a stochastic Sellers-type energy-balance model. Starting from a fast-slow formulation in which insolation is…
Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent…
We present a new stochastic model, based on a 0-dimensional version of the well known biogeochemical flux model (BFM), which allows to take into account the temperature random fluctuations present in natural systems and therefore to…
Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Many natural and industrial turbulent flows are subjected to time-dependent boundary conditions. Despite being ubiquitous, the influence of temporal modulations (with frequency $f$) on global transport properties has hardly been studied.…
A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…