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Posterior contractions rates (PCRs) strengthen the notion of Bayesian consistency, quantifying the speed at which the posterior distribution concentrates on arbitrarily small neighborhoods of the true model, with probability tending to 1 or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-31 Federico Camerlenghi , Emanuele Dolera , Stefano Favaro , Edoardo Mainini

We derive posterior contraction rates (PCRs) and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises (BvM) results for non-parametric Bayesian models by extending the diffusion-based framework of Mou et al. (2024) to the infinite-dimensional setting. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Enric Alberola-Boloix , Ioar Casado-Telletxea

The problem of determining a periodic Lipschitz vector field $b=(b_1, \dots, b_d)$ from an observed trajectory of the solution $(X_t: 0 \le t \le T)$ of the multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation \begin{equation*} dX_t =…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-21 Richard Nickl , Kolyan Ray

In this paper we propose a general method to derive an upper bound for the contraction rate of the posterior distribution for nonparametric inverse problems. We present a general theorem that allows us to derive con- traction rates for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-24 Bartek Knapik , Jean-Bernard Salomond

We study posterior contraction rates for a class of deep Gaussian process priors applied to the nonparametric regression problem under a general composition assumption on the regression function. It is shown that the contraction rates can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-16 Gianluca Finocchio , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators based on observations which are required to be neither independent nor identically distributed. We give general results on the rate of convergence of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Subhashis Ghosal , Aad van der Vaart

We analyze the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models via the Langevin diffusion process, in particular by controlling moments of the stochastic process and taking limits. Analogous to the non-asymptotic analysis of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-18 Wenlong Mou , Nhat Ho , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

We prove a general lemma for deriving contraction rates for linear inverse problems with non parametric nonconjugate priors. We then apply it to get contraction rates for both mildly and severely ill posed linear inverse problems with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-21 Madhuresh

We consider a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems in a separable Hilbert space setting with Gaussian noise. We assume Gaussian priors, which are conjugate to the model, and present a method of identifying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-05 Sergios Agapiou , Stig Larsson , Andrew M. Stuart

We obtain rates of contraction of posterior distributions in inverse problems defined by scales of smoothness classes. We derive abstract results for general priors, with contraction rates determined by Galerkin approximation. The rate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan

We consider nonparametric estimation of a mixed discrete-continuous distribution under anisotropic smoothness conditions and possibly increasing number of support points for the discrete part of the distribution. For these settings, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Andriy Norets , Justinas Pelenis

We consider the Bayesian nonparametric estimation of a nonlinear reaction function in a reaction-diffusion stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). The likelihood is well-defined and tractable by the infinite-dimensional Girsanov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Randolf Altmeyer , Sascha Gaudlitz

The nonparametric estimation of the volatility and the drift coefficient of a scalar diffusion is studied when the process is observed at random time points. The constructed estimator generalizes the spectral method by Gobet, Hoffmann and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Jakub Chorowski , Mathias Trabs

We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process $(X_t)$ which is observed at $n+1$ discrete times with regular sampling interval $\Delta$. Assuming that $(X_t)$ is strictly stationary, we propose nonparametric estimators of the drift and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Fabienne Comte , Valentine Genon-Catalot , Yves Rozenholc

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-09-23 Yang Xing

This paper considers the posterior contraction of non-parametric Bayesian inference on non-homogeneous Poisson processes. We consider the quality of inference on a rate function $\lambda$, given non-identically distributed realisations,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-26 James A. Grant , David S. Leslie

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic properties of nonparametric Bayesian mixtures of Betas for estimating a smooth density on $[0,1]$. We consider a parametrization of Beta distributions in terms of mean and scale parameters and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-12 Judith Rousseau

The posterior distribution in a nonparametric inverse problem is shown to contract to the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the parameter, and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 B. T. Knapik , A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

We investigate the problem of deriving posterior concentration rates under different loss functions in nonparametric Bayes. We first provide a lower bound on posterior coverages of shrinking neighbourhoods that relates the metric or loss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-06 Marc Hoffmann , Judith Rousseau , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

We introduce verifiable criteria for weak posterior consistency of identifiable Bayesian nonparametric inference for jump diffusions with unit diffusion coefficient and uniformly Lipschitz drift and jump coefficients in arbitrary dimension.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-13 Jere Koskela , Dario Spano , Paul A. Jenkins