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Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-21 Ning Sun , Chen Yang , Ričardas Zitikis

Time series regression models are commonly used in time series analysis. However, in modern real-world applications, serially correlated data with an ultra-high dimension and fat tails are prevalent. This presents a challenge in developing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-21 Linbo Liu , Danna Zhang

The Gini index is a function that attempts to measure the amount of inequality in the distribution of a finite resource throughout a population. It is commonly used in economics as a measure of inequality of income or wealth. We define a…

Representation Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-23 Grant Kopitzke

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

We study the empirical version of halfspace depths with the objective of establishing a connection between the rates of convergence and the tail behaviour of the corresponding underlying distributions. The intricate interplay between the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Sibsankar Singha , Marie Kratz , Sreekar Vadlamani

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-07 Wan-Chien Chiu , Juan Ignacio Peña , Chih-Wei Wang

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Estimating the tail index parameter is one of the primal objectives in extreme value theory. For heavy-tailed distributions the Hill estimator is the most popular way to estimate the tail index parameter. Improving the Hill estimator was…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-05 László Németh , András Zempléni

We investigate the ordering between two fundamental measures of dispersion for real-valued risks: the standard deviation (SD) and the Gini mean difference (GMD). Our analysis is driven by a single structural object, namely the mean excess…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-03 Nawaf Mohammed

We revisit and refine known tail inequalities and confidence bounds for the hypergeometric distribution, i.e., for the setting where we sample without replacement from a fixed population with binary values or properties. The results are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Anne-Marie George

We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-25 Roy Wagner

We survey some of the recent advances in mean estimation and regression function estimation. In particular, we describe sub-Gaussian mean estimators for possibly heavy-tailed data both in the univariate and multivariate settings. We focus…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-12 Gabor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

"The rich are getting richer" implies that the population income distributions are getting more right skewed and heavily tailed. For such distributions, the mean is not the best measure of the center, but the classical indices of income…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Vytaras Brazauskas , Francesca Greselin , Ricardas Zitikis

This paper proposes a new method to combine several densities such that each density dominates a separate part of a joint distribution. The method is fully unsupervised, i.e. the parameters in the densities and the thresholds are…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-25 Lars Holden , Ola Haug

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-26 Rafał Kulik , Zhigang Tong

In this paper, we draw attention to a promising yet slightly underestimated measure of variability - the Gini coefficient. We describe two new ways of defining and interpreting this parameter. Using our new representations, we compute the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-13 Marta Milewska , Remco van der Hofstad , Bert Zwart

A popular measure of association is the tail dependence coefficient which measures the strength of dependence in either the lower-left or upper-right tail of a bivariate distribution. In this paper, we develop the idea of quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-09 A. Dastbaravarde , A. Dolati

The distribution of errors is a central object in the assesment and benchmarking of computational chemistry methods. The popular and often blind use of the mean unsigned error as a benchmarking statistic leads to ignore distributions…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2021-02-19 Pascal Pernot , Andreas Savin

Income inequality estimators are biased in small samples, leading generally to an underestimation. This aspect deserves particular attention when estimating inequality in small domains and performing small area estimation at the area level.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Silvia De Nicolò , Maria Rosaria Ferrante , Silvia Pacei

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-05 Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung , Stilian Stoev