Related papers: A State-Dependent Dual Risk Model
In this paper, we developed the Merton's structural model for public companies under an assumption that liabilities of the companies are observed. Using Campbell and Shiller's approximation method, we obtain formulas of risk-neutral equity…
This project works with the risk model developed by Li et al. (2015) and quests modelling, estimating and pricing insurance for risks brought in by innovative technologies, or other emerging or latent risks. The model considers two…
Current reporting standards for insurers require a decomposition of observed profits and losses in such a way that changes in the insurer's balance sheet can be attributed to specified risk factors. Generating such a decomposition is a…
We study solvency of insurers in a comprehensive model where various economic factors affect the capital developments of the companies. The main interest is in the impact of real growth to ruin probabilities. The volume of the business is…
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…
This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and…
This paper proposes a joint model for longitudinal binary and count outcomes. We apply the model to a unique longitudinal study of teen driving where risky driving behavior and the occurrence of crashes or near crashes are measured…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
Optimal reinsurance when Value at Risk and expected surplus is balanced through their ratio is studied, and it is demonstrated how results for risk-adjusted surplus can be utilized. Simplifications for large portfolios are derived, and this…
The "double descent" risk curve was proposed to qualitatively describe the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of variably-parameterized machine learning models. This article provides a precise mathematical analysis for the shape of this…
This paper deals with the stability properties of a closed market, where capital and labour force are acting like a predator-prey system in population-dynamics. The spatial movement of the capital and labour force are taken into account by…
In contemporary society, the effective utilization of public resources remains a subject of significant concern. A common issue arises from defectors seeking to obtain an excessive share of these resources for personal gain, potentially…
In this paper a randomized version of the Beverton-Holt type discrete model is proposed. Its solution stochastic process and the random steady state are determined. Its first probability density function and second probability density…
In this paper, we define probabilistic measures for venture portfolio performance based on individual outlier probability for each investment and the dependence across investments. This work is inspired by loan portfolio modeling against…
We investigate the asymptotic of ruin probabilities when the company combines the life- and non-life insurance businesses and invests its reserve into a risky asset with stochastic volatility and drift driven by a two-state Markov process.…
In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [1] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In…
This paper investigates the pricing of European-style lookback options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are assumed to follow a Markov-modulated Geo-metric Brownian motion; that is, the appreciation rate and the…
A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…
Despite the growing popularity of machine-learning techniques in decision-making, the added value of causal-oriented strategies with respect to pure machine-learning approaches has rarely been quantified in the literature. These strategies…
Breakability rate of fragile item depends on the accumulated stress of heaped stock level. So breakablility rate can be considered as dependent parameter of stock variable. The unit production cost is a function of production rate and also…