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We propose a new, generic and flexible methodology for nonparametric function estimation, in which we first estimate the number and locations of any features that may be present in the function, and then estimate the function parametrically…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Rafal Baranowski , Yining Chen , Piotr Fryzlewicz

A novel method for sequential outlier detection in non-stationary time series is proposed. The method tests the null hypothesis of ``no outlier'' at each time point, addressing the multiple testing problem by bounding the error probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-26 Florian Heinrichs , Patrick Bastian , Holger Dette

Dedicated to the memory of Professor Tze Leung Lai, this paper introduces three multi-hypothesis sequential tests. These tests are derived from one-sided versions of the sequential probability ratio test and its modifications. They are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-03 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Teppei Ogihara

We study a continuous time Bayesian quickest detection problem in which observation times are a scarce resource. The agent, limited to making a finite number of discrete observations, must adaptively decide his observation strategy to…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-04 Erhan Bayraktar , Ross Kravitz

This paper examines the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the probability distribution function (pdf) of a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-04-16 Savas Dayanik , Christian Goulding , H. Vincent Poor

We suggest a novel procedure for online change point detection. Our approach expands an idea of maximizing a discrepancy measure between points from pre-change and post-change distributions. This leads to flexible algorithms suitable for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Nikita Puchkin , Artur Goldman , Konstantin Yakovlev , Valeriia Dzis , Uliana Vinogradova

In this paper the problem of retrospective change-point detection and estimation in multivariate linear models is considered. The lower bounds for the error of change-point estimation are proved in different cases (one change-point:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-10-27 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

We investigate sequential change point estimation and detection in univariate nonparametric settings, where a stream of independent observations from sub-Gaussian distributions with a common variance factor and piecewise-constant but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-16 Yi Yu , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

This paper develops change-point methods for the spectrum of a locally stationary time series. We focus on series with a bounded spectral density that change smoothly under the null hypothesis but exhibits change-points or becomes less…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-08 Alessandro Casini , Pierre Perron

Sequential change-point detection for time series enables us to sequentially check the hypothesis that the model still holds as more and more data are observed. It is widely used in data monitoring in practice. In this work, we consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 Yajun Liu , Beth Andrews

In many computational tasks and dynamical systems, asynchrony and randomization are naturally present and have been considered as ways to increase the speed and reduce the cost of computation while compromising the accuracy and convergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Sahin Lale , Oguzhan Teke , Babak Hassibi , Anima Anandkumar

This article introduces a novel Bayesian method for asynchronous change-point detection in multivariate time series. This method allows for change-points to occur earlier in some (leading) series followed, after a short delay, by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Carson McKee , Maria Kalli

Suppose that local characteristics of several independent compound Poisson and Wiener processes change suddenly and simultaneously at some unobservable disorder time. The problem is to detect the disorder time as quickly as possible after…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-01 Savas Dayanik , H. Vincent Poor , Semih O. Sezer

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Testing for change points in sequences of covariance matrices is an important and equally challenging problem in statistical methodology with applications in various fields. Motivated by the observation that even in cases where the ratio…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Nina Dörnemann , Holger Dette

Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yuhan Tian , Abolfazl Safikhani

Consider a sensor network made of remote nodes connected to a common fusion center. In a recent work Blum and Sadler [1] propose the idea of ordered transmissions -sensors with more informative samples deliver their messages first- and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-03-29 Paolo Braca , Stefano Marano , Vincenzo Matta

Opportunistic detection rules (ODRs) are variants of fixed-sample-size detection rules in which the statistician is allowed to make an early decision on the alternative hypothesis opportunistically based on the sequentially observed…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-02-15 Wenyi Zhang , George V. Moustakides , H. Vincent Poor

We generalize the quantum CUSUM (QUSUM) algorithm for quickest change-point detection, analyzed in finite dimensions by Fanizza, Hirche, and Calsamiglia (Phys. Rev. Lett. 131, 020602, 2023), to infinite-dimensional quantum systems. Our…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-06 Tiju Cherian John , Christos N. Gagatsos , Boulat A. Bash