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We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Nicolas Bianco , Mauro Bernardi , Daniele Bianchi

A leveraged exchange traded fund (LETF) is an exchange traded fund that uses financial derivatives to amplify the price changes of a basket of goods. In this paper, we consider the robust hedging of European options on a LETF, finding…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-24 Alexander M. G. Cox , Sam M. Kinsley

Stochastic differential equation (SDE) models are the foundation for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. The drift and volatility functions in SDE models are typically chosen to be algebraic functions with a small number (less than…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-04 Lei Fan , Justin Sirignano

We propose the Bayesian adaptive Lasso (BaLasso) for variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression. The BaLasso is adaptive to the signal level by adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients. Furthermore, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-09-14 Chenlei Leng , Minh Ngoc Tran , David Nott

As the number of publicly traded companies as well as the amount of their financial data grows rapidly, it is highly desired to have tracking, analysis, and eventually stock selections automated. There have been few works focusing on…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-04 Sercan Arik , Sukru Burc Eryilmaz , Adam Goldberg

We study the construction and rebalancing of sparse index-tracking portfolios from an operational research perspective, with explicit emphasis on uncertainty quantification and implementability. The decision variables are portfolio weights…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-29 Dimitrios Roxanas

The present paper provides a study of high-dimensional statistical arbitrage that combines factor models with the tools from stochastic control, obtaining closed-form optimal strategies which are both interpretable and computationally…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-25 Jorge Guijarro-Ordonez

In high-dimensional linear regression, the goal pursued here is to estimate an unknown regression function using linear combinations of a suitable set of covariates. One of the key assumptions for the success of any statistical procedure in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Philippe Rigollet , Alexandre Tsybakov

Existing black-box portfolio management systems are prevalent in the financial industry due to commercial and safety constraints, though their performance can fluctuate dramatically with changing market regimes. Evaluating these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Zinuo You , John Cartlidge , Karen Elliott , Menghan Ge , Daniel Gold

This study first reviews fuzzy random Portfolio selection theory and describes the concept of portfolio optimization model as a useful instrument for helping finance practitioners and researchers. Second, this paper specifically aims at…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-02-18 Mir Ehsan Hesam Sadati , Ali Doniavi

This paper investigates the large sample properties of the variance, weights, and risk of high-dimensional portfolios where the inverse of the covariance matrix of excess asset returns is estimated using a technique called nodewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-16 Laurent Callot , Mehmet Caner , Esra Ulasan , A. Özlem Önder

For regression tasks one often leverages large datasets for training predictive machine learning models. However, using large datasets may not be feasible due to computational limitations or high data labelling costs. Therefore, suitably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-15 Paolo Climaco , Jochen Garcke

The paper investigates the rich class of Generalized Tempered Stable distribution, an alternative to Normal distribution and the $\alpha$-Stable distribution for modelling asset return and many physical and economic systems. Firstly, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-07 A. H. Nzokem , V. T. Montshiwa

In this paper, new results in random matrix theory are derived which allow us to construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio when the shrinkage target is a random object. More specifically, the shrinkage…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 Taras Bodnar , Nestor Parolya , Erik Thorsen

In this paper a new decision theoretic sampling plan (DSP) is proposed for Type-I censored exponential distribution. The proposed DSP is based on a new estimator of the expected lifetime of an exponential distribution which always exists,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-18 Deepak Prajapati , Sharmistha Mitra , Debasis Kundu

We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-18 Matteo Mogliani , Anna Simoni

We propose a novel sparse spectrum approximation of Gaussian process (GP) tailored for Bayesian optimization. Whilst the current sparse spectrum methods provide desired approximations for regression problems, it is observed that this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Ang Yang , Cheng Li , Santu Rana , Sunil Gupta , Svetha Venkatesh

Semiconductor device models are essential to understand the charge transport in thin film transistors (TFTs). Using these TFT models to draw inference involves estimating parameters used to fit to the experimental data. These experimental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-29 Neel Chatterjee , Somya Sharma , Sarah Swisher , Snigdhansu Chatterjee

In practical regression applications, multiple covariates are often measured, but not all may be associated with the response variable. Identifying and including only the relevant covariates in the model is crucial for improving prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Ana Carolina da Cruz , Camila P. E. de Souza , Pedro H. T. O. Sousa

We propose a Bayesian procedure for simultaneous variable and covariance selection using continuous spike-and-slab priors in multivariate linear regression models where q possibly correlated responses are regressed onto p predictors. Rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-29 Sameer K. Deshpande , Veronika Rockova , Edward I. George