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A Monte Carlo algorithm is said to be adaptive if it automatically calibrates its current proposal distribution using past simulations. The choice of the parametric family that defines the set of proposal distributions is critical for good…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-11 Christian Schäfer , Nicolas Chopin

We present a mathematical framework for constructing and analyzing parallel algorithms for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The resulting algorithms have the capacity to simulate a wide range of spatio-temporal scales in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Giorgos Arampatzis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Petr Plechac , Michela Taufer , Lifan Xu

SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) is a class of Monte Carlo algorithms for filtering and related sequential problems. Gerber and Chopin (2015) introduced SQMC (Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo), a QMC version of SMC. This paper has two objectives:…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-19 Nicolas Chopin , Mathieu Gerber

Traditional gradient-based sampling methods, like standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, require that the desired target distribution is continuous and differentiable. This limits the types of models one can define, although the presented models…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-28 Jimmy Huy Tran , Tore Selland Kleppe

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient Bayesian sampling method that can make distant proposals in the parameter space by simulating a Hamiltonian dynamical system. Despite its popularity in machine learning and data science, HMC is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-02 Ziming Liu , Zheng Zhang

The kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) method is used in many scientific fields in applications involving rare-event transitions. Due to its discrete stochastic nature, efforts to parallelize kMC approaches often produce unbalanced time evolutions…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-01-04 Jerome P. Nilmeier , Jaime Marian

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Tobias Schwedes , Ben Calderhead

We build on auto-encoding sequential Monte Carlo (AESMC): a method for model and proposal learning based on maximizing the lower bound to the log marginal likelihood in a broad family of structured probabilistic models. Our approach relies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-06 Tuan Anh Le , Maximilian Igl , Tom Rainforth , Tom Jin , Frank Wood

We study weighted particle systems in which new generations are resampled from current particles with probabilities proportional to their weights. This covers a broad class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, widely-used in applied…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Jere Koskela , Paul A. Jenkins , Adam M. Johansen , Dario Spano

A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-09 Marco F. Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K. Mansinghka

We explore a general framework in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling where sequential proposals are tried as a candidate for the next state of the Markov chain. This sequential-proposal framework can be applied to various existing…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-21 Joonha Park , Yves F. Atchadé

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Connie Trojan , Pavel Myshkov , Paul Fearnhead , James Hensman , Tom Minka , Christopher Nemeth

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Cellular scale decision making is modulated by the dynamics of signalling molecules and their diffusive trajectories from a source to small absorbing sites on the cellular surface. Diffusive capture problems are computationally challenging…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Alan E. Lindsay , Andrew J. Bernoff

We propose a novel class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, appropriate for inference in probabilistic graphical models. This class of algorithms adopts a divide-and-conquer approach based upon an auxiliary tree-structured…

In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a key tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a sequence of distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated to a weighted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 R. Douc , France E. Moulines

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state of the art method for sampling from distributions with differentiable densities, but can converge slowly when applied to challenging multimodal problems. Running HMC with a time varying Hamiltonian,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-26 Reuben Cohn-Gordon , Uroš Seljak , Dries Sels

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a class of algorithms to sample complex and high-dimensional probability distributions. The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, the workhorse of MCMC, provides a simple recipe to construct reversible…