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We propose a conditional stochastic interpolation (CSI) method for learning conditional distributions. CSI is based on estimating probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations that transport a reference distribution to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ding Huang , Jian Huang , Ting Li , Guohao Shen

The partial monitoring (PM) framework provides a theoretical formulation of sequential learning problems with incomplete feedback. On each round, a learning agent plays an action while the environment simultaneously chooses an outcome. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Maxime Heuillet , Ola Ahmad , Audrey Durand

We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-23 Xinyu He , Warren B. Powell

Optimization in machine learning typically deals with the minimization of empirical objectives defined by training data. However, the ultimate goal of learning is to minimize the error on future data (test error), for which the training…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-08 Bernhard Stankewitz , Nicole Mücke , Lorenzo Rosasco

Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Nicola Bariletto , Nhat Ho

Most work in neural networks focuses on estimating the conditional mean of a continuous response variable given a set of covariates.In this article, we consider estimating the conditional distribution function using neural networks for both…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-07 Bingqing Hu , Bin Nan

Stochastic dominance serves as a general framework for modeling a broad spectrum of decision preferences under uncertainty, with risk aversion as one notable example, as it naturally captures the intrinsic structure of the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Shicong Cen , Jincheng Mei , Hanjun Dai , Dale Schuurmans , Yuejie Chi , Bo Dai

We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Andrey Vasilyev , Yikai Wang , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable $\mathbf{x}$ and a dependent variable $\mathbf{y}$ by modeling their conditional probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Jonas Rothfuss , Fabio Ferreira , Simon Walther , Maxim Ulrich

A dynamical model consists of a continuous self-map $T: \mathcal{X} \to \mathcal{X}$ of a compact state space $\mathcal{X}$ and a continuous observation function $f: \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}$. This paper considers the fitting of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-24 Kevin McGoff , Andrew B. Nobel

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Chenxiao Yang , Qitian Wu , Qingsong Wen , Zhiqiang Zhou , Liang Sun , Junchi Yan

Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Paul Escande

This paper establishes bounds on the predictive performance of empirical risk minimization for principal component regression. Our analysis is nonparametric, in the sense that the relation between the prediction target and the predictors is…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-18 Christian Brownlees , Guðmundur Stefán Guðmundsson , Yaping Wang

Motivated by stochastic optimization, we introduce the problem of learning from samples of contextual value distributions. A contextual value distribution can be understood as a family of real-valued distributions, where each sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Anna Heuser , Thomas Kesselheim

In performative prediction, a predictive model impacts the distribution that generates future data, a phenomenon that is being ignored in classical supervised learning. In this closed-loop setting, the natural measure of performance named…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Yulai Zhao

Many problems in computational science and engineering become one-to-many after coarse graining, partial observation, or inverse reconstruction: a resolved state may not determine a unique subgrid forcing, a structural descriptor may not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Junfeng Chen

We consider learning a predictor which is non-discriminatory with respect to a "protected attribute" according to the notion of "equalized odds" proposed by Hardt et al. [2016]. We study the problem of learning such a non-discriminatory…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-03 Blake Woodworth , Suriya Gunasekar , Mesrob I. Ohannessian , Nathan Srebro

We explore generalizations of some integrated learning and optimization frameworks for data-driven contextual stochastic optimization that can adapt to heteroscedasticity. We identify conditions on the stochastic program, data generation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-11 Rohit Kannan , Güzin Bayraksan , James Luedtke

Stochastic structured prediction under bandit feedback follows a learning protocol where on each of a sequence of iterations, the learner receives an input, predicts an output structure, and receives partial feedback in form of a task loss…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-04-24 Artem Sokolov , Julia Kreutzer , Christopher Lo , Stefan Riezler

We study the problem of sequential prediction in the stochastic setting with an adversary that is allowed to inject clean-label adversarial (or out-of-distribution) examples. Algorithms designed to handle purely stochastic data tend to fail…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Surbhi Goel , Steve Hanneke , Shay Moran , Abhishek Shetty