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We discuss simulation schemes for continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes driven by tempered stable L\'evy noises. CARMA processes are the continuous-time analogue of ARMA processes as well as a generalization of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-28 Till Massing

Suppose that $(X_t)_{t \ge 0}$ is a one-dimensional Brownian motion with negative drift $-\mu$. It is possible to make sense of conditioning this process to be in the state $0$ at an independent exponential random time and if we kill the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-28 Steven N. Evans , Alexandru Hening

This paper aims to provide some tools coming from functional inequalities to deal with quasi-stationarity for absorbed Markov processes. First, it is shown how a Poincar\'e inequality related to a suitable Doob transform entails exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-29 William Oçafrain

In this paper, we consider a class of inhomogeneous semi-Markov processes directly based on intensity processes for marked point processes. We show that this class satisfies the semi-Markov properties defined elsewhere in the literature. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-14 Alexander Sokol

There are some positively divisible non-Markovian processes whose transition matrices satisfy the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. These processes should also satisfy the Kolmogorov consistency conditions, an essential requirement for a process…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-24 Bilal Canturk , Heinz-Peter Breuer

We consider a general method for the approximation of the distribution of a process conditioned to not hit a given set. Existing methods are based on particle system that are failable, in the sense that, in many situations , they are not…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-30 William Oçafrain , Denis Villemonais

Many integrable stochastic particle systems in one space dimension (such as TASEP - Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process - and its $q$-deformation, the $q$-TASEP) remain integrable if we equip each particle with its own speed…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Leonid Petrov , Axel Saenz

This paper presents some new results on the conditional joint probability distributions of phase-type under the mixture of right-continuous Markov jump processes with absorption on the same finite state space $\mathbb{S}$ moving at…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-24 B. A. Surya

We introduce the Markov Distributional Conformal Prediction (MDCP) method that extends the distributional conformal prediction (previously developed for regression) to the setting of a strictly stationary Markov process. Instead of relying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Dehao Dai , Kejin Wu , Dimitris N. Politis

We observe the continuous-time Markov Branching Process without high-order moments and allowing Immigration. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated. Main mathematical tool is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-18 Azam A. Imomov , Abror Kh. Meyliev

Around the 1960s a celebrated collection of papers emerged offering a number of explicit identities for the class of isotropic stable processes in one and higher dimensions; these include, for example, the lauded works of Blumenthal,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-06 Andreas E. Kyprianou

To understand the empirical success of approximate MAP inference, recent work (Lang et al., 2018) has shown that some popular approximation algorithms perform very well when the input instance is stable. The simplest stability condition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-16 Hunter Lang , David Sontag , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

It was recently proven that the correlation function of the stationary version of a reflected L\'evy process is nonnegative, nonincreasing and convex. In another branch of the literature it was established that the mean value of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-16 Offer Kella , Michel Mandjes

We propose a notion of conditioned stochastic stability of invariant measures on repellers: we consider whether quasi-ergodic measures of absorbing Markov processes, generated by random perturbations of the deterministic dynamics and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-12-18 Bernat Bassols Cornudella , Matheus Manzatto de Castro , Jeroen S. W. Lamb

We observe a length-$n$ sample generated by an unknown,stationary ergodic Markov process (\emph{model}) over a finite alphabet $\mathcal{A}$. Given any string $\bf{w}$ of symbols from $\mathcal{A}$ we want estimates of the conditional…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-06-11 Meysam Asadi , Ramezan Paravi Torghabeh , Narayana P. Santhanam

This paper proposes a Markovian model of 1-persistent CSMA/CA protocols with K-Exponential Backoff scheduling algorithms. The input buffer of each access node is modeled as a Geo/G/1 queue, and the service time distribution of each…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2011-03-09 Pui King Wong , Dongjie Yin , Tony T. Lee

Stochastic approximation is a framework unifying many random iterative algorithms occurring in a diverse range of applications. The stability of the process is often difficult to verify in practical applications and the process may even be…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-10 Christophe Andrieu , Matti Vihola

We present a finite-time framework for identifying stable and unstable linear time-invariant (LTI) systems from a single closed-loop input-output trajectory. The method does not require knowledge of the stabilizing controller, an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Ahmad Al-Tawaha , Ming Jin , Khaled F. Aljanaideh

We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Ao Cai , Pedro Duarte , Silvius Klein

In this paper, we study a discrete-time analogue of a Hawkes process, modelled as a Poisson autoregressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. The model is characterized to allow these parameters to take negative…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-04 Manon Costa , Pascal Maillard , Anthony Muraro
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