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Probabilistic conditioning is concerned with the identification of a distribution of a random variable $X$ given a random variable $Y$. It is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications where modeling uncertainty is key. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Panos Tsimpos , Edoardo Calvello , Ayoub Belhadji , Nicholas H. Nelsen

We present a method to solve fractional optimal control problems, where the dynamic depends on integer and Caputo fractional derivatives. Our approach consists to approximate the initial fractional order problem with a new one that involves…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-25 Ricardo Almeida , Delfim F. M. Torres

We study a Weiner process that is conditioned to pass through a finite set of points and consider the dynamics generated by iterating a sample path from this process. Using topological techniques we are able to characterize the global…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Konstantin Mischaikow , Cameron Thieme

In this technical report, we consider conditional density estimation with a maximum likelihood approach. Under weak assumptions, we obtain a theoretical bound for a Kullback-Leibler type loss for a single model maximum likelihood estimate.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-11 Serge Cohen , Erwan Le Pennec

In this paper, we study the probabilistic stability analysis of a subclass of stochastic hybrid systems, called the Planar Probabilistic Piecewise Constant Derivative Systems (Planar PPCD), where the continuous dynamics is deterministic,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Spandan Das , Pavithra Prabhakar

Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here we present prediction deviation, a new metric of uncertainty that…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-08 Benjamin Letham , Portia A. Letham , Cynthia Rudin , Edward P. Browne

We demonstrate that backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) may be reformulated as ordinary functional differential equations on certain path spaces. In this framework, neither It\^{o}'s integrals nor martingale representation…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-20 Gechun Liang , Terry Lyons , Zhongmin Qian

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e.,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-02-15 Michael Pilosov , Carlos del-Castillo-Negrete , Tian Yu Yen , Troy Butler , Clint Dawson

We identify an issue in recent approaches to learning-based control that reformulate systems with uncertain dynamics using a stochastic differential equation. Specifically, we discuss the approximation that replaces a model with fixed but…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-12 Thomas Lew , Apoorva Sharma , James Harrison , Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Marc Finzi , Anudhyan Boral , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Fei Sha , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate distortion theory to use causal shielding---a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference:…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-08-23 Susanne Still , James P. Crutchfield , Christopher J. Ellison

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) represent a very active research field with numerous recent developments and breakthrough results. There are several well-established approaches and methods used to construct solutions for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-27 Christian Kuehn , Alexandra Neamtu

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behavior, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-03 Daniel Messenger , Greg Dwyer , Vanja Dukic

A standard assumption for causal inference from observational data is that one has measured a sufficiently rich set of covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values. Skepticism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-24 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

We study properties of two resampling scenarios: Conditional Randomisation and Conditional Permutation schemes, which are relevant for testing conditional independence of discrete random variables $X$ and $Y$ given a random variable $Z$.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-14 Małgorzata Łazęcka , Bartosz Kołodziejek , Jan Mielniczuk

Any Borel probability measure supported on a Cantor set of zero Lebesgue measure on the real line possesses a discrete inverse measure. We study the validity of the multifractal formalism for the inverse measures of random weak Gibbs…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-06-06 Zhihui Yuan

This paper is mainly concerned with a kind of fractional stochastic evolution equations driven by L\'evy noise in a bounded domain. We first state the well-posedness of the problem via iterative approximations and energy estimates. Then,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Jiaohui Xu , Tomás Caraballo , José Valero

A binary fluid mixture in contact with lateral particle reservoirs is considered. By imposing different particle concentrations in these reservoirs, the system can be maintained under controlled non-equilibrium conditions. Previous…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-01 O. Politano , Alejandro L. Garcia , F. Baras , M. Malek Mansour

Past research on probabilistic databases has studied the problem of answering queries on a static database. Application scenarios of probabilistic databases however often involve the conditioning of a database using additional information…

Databases · Computer Science 2008-06-16 Christoph Koch , Dan Olteanu

This paper is concerned with a shape optimization problem governed by a non-smooth PDE, i.e., the nonlinearity in the state equation is not necessarily differentiable. We follow the functional variational approach of [40] where the set of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Livia Betz
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