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Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…
In variational phase-field modeling of brittle fracture, the functional to be minimized is not convex, so that the necessary stationarity conditions of the functional may admit multiple solutions. The solution obtained in an actual…
Coupled problems with various combinations of multiple physics, scales, and domains can be found in numerous areas of science and engineering. A key challenge in the formulation and implementation of corresponding coupled models is to…
Quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs)arise from stochastic processes that exhibit transient equilibrium behaviour on the way to absorption QSDs are often mathematically intractable and even drawing samples from them is not straightforward.…
For complex nonlinear systems, it is challenging to design algorithms that are fast, scalable, and give an accurate approximation of the stability region. This paper proposes a sampling-based approach to address these challenges. By…
Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…
We extend Monte Carlo samplers based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP samplers) by formally defining different boundary conditions such as sticky floors, soft and hard walls and teleportation portals. This allows PDMP…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…
In this paper we consider the problem of computing the stationary distribution of nearly completely decomposable Markov processes, a well-established area in the classical theory of Markov processes with broad applications in the design,…
In this paper, we study a notion of local stationarity for discrete time Markov chains which is useful for applications in statistics. In the spirit of some locally stationary processes introduced in the literature, we consider triangular…
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…
We study continuous-time Markov chains on the non-negative integers under mild regularity conditions (in particular, the set of jump vectors is finite and both forward and backward jumps are possible). Based on the so-called flux balance…
In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…
We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…
A resampling scheme provides a way to switch low-weight particles for sequential Monte Carlo with higher-weight particles representing the objective distribution. The less the variance of the weight distribution is, the more concentrated…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
Polynomial Chaos Expansions represent a powerful tool to simulate stochastic models of dynamical systems. Yet, deriving the expansion's coefficients for complex systems might require a significant and non-trivial manipulation of the model,…
Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have…
This paper presents a new numerical scheme for simulating stochastic processes specified by their marginal distribution functions and covariance functions. Stochastic samples are firstly generated to automatically satisfy target marginal…
We introduce an ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to sampling from a probability density with known likelihood. This method upgrades an underlying Markov chain by allowing an ensemble of such chains to interact via a process in…