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Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework,…
Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…
We investigate a new sampling scheme aimed at improving the performance of particle filters whenever (a) there is a significant mismatch between the assumed model dynamics and the actual system, or (b) the posterior probability tends to…
Particle MCMC is a class of algorithms that can be used to analyse state-space models. They use MCMC moves to update the parameters of the models, and particle filters to propose values for the path of the state-space model. Currently the…
To estimate the smoothing distribution in a nonlinear state space model, we apply the conditional particle filter with ancestor sampling. This gives an iterative algorithm in a Markov chain Monte Carlo fashion, with asymptotic convergence…
Particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) allows for Bayesian parameter inference in nonlinear state space models by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filtering. The latter is used to estimate the intractable likelihood. In…
"Particle methods" are sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, typically involving importance sampling, that are used to estimate and sample from joint and marginal densities from a collection of a, presumably increasing, number of random…
Particle filters are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions of hidden states in state-space models by means of sets of weighted particles. While the convergence of the filter is guaranteed when the number of particles tends to…
A series of novel filters for probabilistic inference that propose an alternative way of performing Bayesian updates, called particle flow filters, have been attracting recent interest. These filters provide approximate solutions to…
Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…
Particle filters (PFs) are recursive Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian tracking and prediction in state space models. This paper addresses continuous-discrete filtering problems, where the hidden state evolves as an It\^o stochastic…
The problem is target motion analysis (TMA), where the objective is to estimate the state of a moving target from noise corrupted bearings-only measurements. The focus is on recursive TMA, traditionally solved using the Bayesian filters…
We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback…
Particle filtering algorithms have enabled practical solutions to problems in autonomous robotics (self-driving cars, UAVs, warehouse robots), target tracking, and econometrics, with further applications in speech processing and medicine…
This paper revisits the work of Rauch et al. (1965) and develops a novel method for recursive maximum likelihood particle filtering for general state-space models. The new method is based on statistical analysis of incomplete observations…
In this paper we combine the non-linear filtering capabilities of particle filters with the transdimensional inference of the reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method for a data assimilation methodology over dynamic problems with…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…
The posterior Cram\'er-Rao lower bound (PCRLB) derived in Tichavsk\'y et al., 1998, provides a bound on the mean square error (MSE) obtained with any non-linear state filter. Computing the PCRLB involves solving complex, multi-dimensional…
Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we…