Related papers: Bayesian GARMA Models for Count Data

We propose a new data-augmentation strategy for fully Bayesian inference in models with binomial likelihoods. The approach appeals to a new class of Polya-Gamma distributions, which are constructed in detail. A variety of examples are…

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

In this work we introduce the class of unit-Weibull Autoregressive Moving Average models for continuous random variables taking values in $(0,1)$. The proposed model is an observation driven one, for which, conditionally on a set of…

A novel methodology to analyze non-Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDFs) of intermittent turbulent transport in global full-f gyrokinetic simulations is presented. In this work, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average…

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…

This paper presents the generalized spatial autoregression (GSAR) model, a significant advance in spatial econometrics for non-normal response variables belonging to the exponential family. The GSAR model extends the logistic SAR, probit…

We define Recurrent Gaussian Processes (RGP) models, a general family of Bayesian nonparametric models with recurrent GP priors which are able to learn dynamical patterns from sequential data. Similar to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs),…

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

Sparse generalized additive models (GAMs) are an extension of sparse generalized linear models which allow a model's prediction to vary non-linearly with an input variable. This enables the data analyst build more accurate models,…

We introduce the concept of Randomly Modulated Gaussian Processes as a unifying framework for modeling, analyzing and classifying anomalous diffusion models in heterogeneous media. This formulation incorporates correlations in the…

Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…

We explore various Bayesian approaches to estimate partial Gaussian graphical models. Our hierarchical structures enable to deal with single-output as well as multiple-output linear regressions, in small or high dimension, enforcing either…

In this paper, we consider a continuous-time autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (CARFIMA) model, which is defined as the stationary solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by a standard fractional Brownian…

We propose a recursive Bayesian estimation procedure for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs based on message passing in a factor graph. Unlike recursive least-squares, our method produces full posterior distributions…

We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk…

We present a novel Bayesian framework to decompose the posterior predictive variance in a fitted Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) into explained and unexplained components. This decomposition enables a rigorous definition of Bayesian…

Evidence accumulation models (EAMs) are an important class of cognitive models used to analyze both response time and response choice data recorded from decision-making tasks. Developments in estimation procedures have helped EAMs become…

One may consider three types of statistical inference: Bayesian, frequentist, and group invariance-based. The focus here is on the last method. We consider the Poisson and binomial distributions in detail to illustrate a group invariance…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…