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The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over $2\%$, and it is the result of the non-Pearson type auto-correlations in the index. These non-Pearson type…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-24 Bulcsú Sándor , Ingve Simonsen , Bálint Zsolt Nagy , Zoltán Néda

We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-21 Pierre Blanc , Rémy Chicheportiche , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

This paper investigates the return-volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin. We find that the cross correlations between return and volatility (squared return) are mostly insignificant on a daily level. In the high-frequency region, we find thata…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-17 T. Takaishi

We investigate the two components of the total daily return (close-to-close), the overnight return (close-to-open) and the daytime return (open-to-close), as well as the corresponding volatilities of the 2215 NYSE stocks from 1988 to 2007.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-06-02 Fengzhong Wang , Shwu-Jane Shieh , Shlomo Havlin , H. Eugene Stanley

The world's stock markets display a strikingly suspicious pattern of overnight and intraday returns. Overnight returns to major stock market indices over the past few decades have been wildly positive, while intraday returns have been…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-06 Bruce Knuteson

Over the past 30 years, nearly all the gains in the U.S. stock market have been earned overnight, while average intraday returns have been negative or flat. We find that a large part of this effect can be explained through features of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-08 Paul Glasserman , Kriste Krstovski , Paul Laliberte , Harry Mamaysky

We study the time dependent cross correlations of stock returns, i.e. we measure the correlation as the function of the time shift between pairs of stock return time series using tick-by-tick data. We find a weak but significant effect…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 L. Kullmann , J. Kertesz , K. Kaski

The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upward-sloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-16 Kim Christensen , Ulrich Hounyo , Zhi Liu

Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of most economic time-series, which causes standard correlation estimators to be inconsistent. The quadrant correlation estimator is consistent but very inefficient. We propose a novel…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-01 Peter Reinhard Hansen , Yiyao Luo

Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2010-05-20 Steven L. Heston , Robert A. Korajczyk , Ronnie Sadka

We study the relation between serial correlation of financial returns and volatility at intraday level for the S&P500 stock index. At daily and weekly level, serial correlation and volatility are known to be negatively correlated (LeBaron…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Simone Bianco , Fulvio Corsi , Roberto Reno'

We study the impact of volatility on intraday serial correlation, at time scales of less than 20 minutes, exploiting a data set with all transaction on SPX500 futures from 1993 to 2001. We show that, while realized volatility and intraday…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Simone Bianco , Roberto Renó

We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-29 Romain Allez , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We exploit a continuous time random walk description of stock prices to obtain a fast and accurate evaluation of their volatility from intraday data. We show that financial markets are usefully described as open physical systems. Indeed we…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-12-02 Rosario Bartiromo

The Epps effect, the decrease of correlations between stock returns for short time windows, was traced back to the trading asynchronicity and to the occasional lead-lag relation between the prices. We study pairs of stocks where the latter…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-01-11 Bence Toth , Janos Kertesz

This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2016-06-14 Mihaly Ormos , Dusan Timotity

It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 Pierre Cizeau , Marc Potters , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-04 Lei Tan , Bo Zheng , Jun-Jie Chen , Xiong-Fei Jiang

Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-25 Johannes Vitalis Siven , Jeffrey Todd Lins

We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 Gabriele La Spada , J. Doyne Farmer , Fabrizio Lillo
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