Related papers: Bayesian sequential parameter estimation with a La…
The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to…
A major challenge in state estimation with model-based observers are low-quality models that lack of relevant dynamics. We address this issue by simultaneously estimating the system's states and its model uncertainties by a square root UKF.…
Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…
The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is…
We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method…
In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…
We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…
Envelope models provide a sufficient dimension reduction framework for multivariate regression analysis. Bayesian inference for these models has been developed primarily using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Specifically, Gibbs…
In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…
As models of cognition grow in complexity and number of parameters, Bayesian inference with standard methods can become intractable, especially when the data-generating model is of unknown analytic form. Recent advances in simulation-based…
Although Bayesian methods are robust and principled, their application in practice could be limited since they typically rely on computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for their implementation. One possible solution…
Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…
We consider the problem of estimating states and parameters in a model based on a system of coupled stochastic differential equations, based on noisy discrete-time data. Special attention is given to nonlinear dynamics and state-dependent…
Large-scale linear models are ubiquitous throughout machine learning, with contemporary application as surrogate models for neural network uncertainty quantification; that is, the linearised Laplace method. Alas, the computational cost…
In recent years, methods of approximate parameter estimation have attracted considerable interest in complex problems where exact likelihoods are hard to obtain. In their most basic form, Bayesian methods such as Approximate Bayesian…
The Dynamical Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models provide an elegant non-parametric framework for learning the low dimensional representations of the high-dimensional time-series. Real world observational studies, however, are often…
We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods perform inference on model-specific parameters of mechanistically motivated parametric statistical models when evaluating likelihoods is difficult. Central to the success of ABC methods is…
We introduce Latent Gaussian Process Regression which is a latent variable extension allowing modelling of non-stationary multi-modal processes using GPs. The approach is built on extending the input space of a regression problem with a…