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Related papers: Quadratic Hawkes processes for financial prices

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Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

Accurate modeling of the temporal evolution of asset prices is crucial for understanding financial markets. We explore the potential of discrete-time quantum walks to model the evolution of asset prices. Return distributions obtained from a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-05 Stijn De Backer , Luis E. C. Rocha , Jan Ryckebusch , Koen Schoors

This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Donggyu Kim , Minseok Shin

Asynchronous events sequences are widely distributed in the natural world and human activities, such as earthquakes records, users activities in social media and so on. How to distill the information from these seemingly disorganized data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Lu-ning Zhang , Jian-wei Liu , Zhi-yan Song , Xin Zuo

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-08 Raviar Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

The order flow in high-frequency financial markets has been of particular research interest in recent years, as it provides insights into trading and order execution strategies and leads to better understanding of the supply-demand…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-26 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodriguez

This paper is devoted to establishing the full scaling limit theorems for multivariate Hawkes processes. Under some mild conditions on the exciting kernels, we develop a new way to prove that after a suitable time-spatial scaling, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-20 Wei Xu

This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-19 Michael Pfarrhofer

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 D. Sornette , J. V. Andersen

High frequency financial data is burdened by a level of randomness that is unavoidable and obfuscates the task of modelling. This idea is reflected in the intraday evolution of limit orders book data for many financial assets and suggests…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-15 Myles Sjogren , Timothy DeLise

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Guillaume Staerman , Cédric Allain , Alexandre Gramfort , Thomas Moreau

This paper investigates the application of Quantum Generative Adversarial Networks (QGANs) for stock price prediction. Financial markets are inherently complex, marked by high volatility and intricate patterns that traditional models often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Sangram Deshpande , Gopal Ramesh Dahale , Sai Nandan Morapakula , Uday Wad

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

We define a new model using a Hawkes process as a subordinator in a standard Brownian motion. We demonstrate that this Hawkes subordinated Brownian motion or more succinctly, variance-Hawkes process can be fit to 2018 and 2019 natural gas…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-14 Joshua McGillivray , Anatoliy Swishchuk

This study explores contagion in the Chinese stock market using Hawkes processes to analyze autocorrelation and cross-correlation in multivariate time series data. We examine whether market indices exhibit trending behavior and whether…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-10 Junwei Yang

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Animal acoustic communication often exhibits temporal dependence, with calls triggering or suppressing subsequent calls within and across call types, individuals, or species. While Hawkes processes provide a natural framework for modeling…

We show that typical behaviors of market participants at the high frequency scale generate leverage effect and rough volatility. To do so, we build a simple microscopic model for the price of an asset based on Hawkes processes. We encode in…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-19 El Euch Omar , Fukasawa Masaaki , Rosenbaum Mathieu