Related papers: Flexible Extreme Value Inference And Hill Plots Fo…
Based on the methods provided in Caeiro and Gomes (2002) and Fraga Alves (2001), a new class of location invariant Hill-type estimators is derived in this paper. Its asymptotic distributional representation and asymptotic normality are…
We compute the tail asymptotics of the product of a beta random variable and a generalized gamma random variable which are independent and have general parameters. A special case of these asymptotics were proved and used in a recent work of…
Let $X_{1,n}\le\cdots\le X_{n,n}$ be the order statistics of $n$ independent random variables with a common distribution function $F$ having right heavy tail with tail index $\gamma$. Given known constants $d_{i,n}$, $1\le i\le n$, consider…
The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…
Strict stationarity is a common assumption used in the time series literature in order to derive asymptotic distributional results for second-order statistics, like sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations. Focusing on weak…
We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, posing serious threats to human life, biodiversity, and ecosystems. A key objective of extreme event attribution (EEA) is to assess whether and to what extent anthropogenic…
In this paper we consider the estimation problem for high quantiles of a heavy-tailed distribution from block data when only a few largest values are observed within blocks. We propose estimators for high quantiles and prove that these…
The Hilbert-Chapman-Enskog expansion of the kinetic equations in mean flight times is believed to be asymptotic rather than convergent. It is therefore inadvisable to use lower order results to simplify the current approximation as is done…
Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…
We consider the asymptotics of various estimators based on a large sample of branching trees from a critical multi-type Galton-Watson process, as the sample size increases to infinity. The asymptotics of additive functions of trees, such as…
Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…
We develop an unsupervised mixture model for non-negative, skewed and heavy-tailed data, such as losses in actuarial and risk management applications. The mixture has a lognormal component, which is usually appropriate for the body of the…
Both parametric distribution functions appearing in extreme value theory - the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution - have log-concave densities if the extreme value index gamma is in [-1,0].…
Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…
This paper addresses the problem of estimating the extreme value index in presence of random censoring for distributions in the Weibull domain of attraction. The methodologies introduced in [Worms (2014)], in the heavy-tailed case, are…
We present a nonparametric family of estimators for the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution when covariate information is available. Our estimators are based on a weighted sum of the log-spacings between some selected observations.…
High-dimensional covariance estimation is notoriously sensitive to outliers. While statistically optimal estimators exist for general heavy-tailed distributions, they often rely on computationally expensive techniques like semidefinite…
Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…
The Hill estimator is often used to infer the power behavior in tails of experimental distribution functions. This estimator is known to produce bad results in certain situations which have lead to the so-called Hill horror plots. In this…