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Data assimilation schemes are confronted with the presence of model errors arising from the imperfect description of atmospheric dynamics. These errors are usually modeled on the basis of simple assumptions such as bias, white noise, first…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. Carrassi , S. Vannitsem , C. Nicolis

We propose a new algorithm for an adaptive optics system control law, based on the Linear Quadratic Gaussian approach and a Kalman Filter adaptation with localizations. It allows to handle non-stationary behaviors, to obtain performance…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 Morgan Gray , Cyril Petit , Sergey Rodionov , Marc Bocquet , Laurent Bertino , Marc Ferrari , Thierry Fusco

Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations is a ubiquitous problem in a large number of applications, such as probabilistic weather forecasting and prediction of epidemics. Particle filters are a widely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-21 E. Calvello , J. A. Carrillo , F. Hoffmann , P. Monmarché , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

We introduce a data assimilation strategy aimed at accurately capturing key non-Gaussian structures in probability distributions using a small ensemble size. A major challenge in statistical forecasting of nonlinearly coupled multiscale…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is formulated for advection-dominated or hyperbolic evolutionary problems, and observations. The method is referred to as the dynamic likelihood filter because it exploits the model physics to dynamically…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-04-26 Juan M. Restrepo

The Ensemble Kalman filter assumes the observations to be Gaussian random variables with a pre-specified mean and variance. In practice, observations may also have detection limits, for instance when a gauge has a minimum or maximum value.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Abhishek Shah , Mohamad El Gharamti , Laurent Bertino

In this study, we explore data assimilation for the Stochastic Camassa-Holm equation through the application of the particle filtering framework. Specifically, our approach integrates adaptive tempering, jittering, and nudging techniques to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Colin John Cotter , Dan Crisan , Maneesh Kumar Singh

In many applications of Monte Carlo nonlinear filtering, the propagation step is computationally expensive, and hence, the sample size is limited. With small sample sizes, the update step becomes crucial. Particle filtering suffers from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-03 Marco Frei , Hans R. Künsch

The fusion between an inertial navigation system and global navigation satellite systems is regularly used in many platforms such as drones, land vehicles, and marine vessels. The fusion is commonly carried out in a model-based extended…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-05 Barak Or , Itzik Klein

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation faces significant challenges in high-dimensional systems due to spurious correlations and ensemble collapse. These issues arise from estimating dense dependencies with limited ensemble sizes. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Berent Ånund Strømnes Lunde

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a reliable data assimilation tool for high-dimensional meteorological problems. On the other hand, the EnKF can be interpreted as a particle filter, and particle filters collapse in high-dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-01 Matthias Morzfeld , Daniel Hodyss , Chris Snyder

Real-time nonlinear Bayesian filtering algorithms are overwhelmed by data volume, velocity and increasing complexity of computational models. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble based nonlinear Bayesian filtering approach which only…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-05 Xiao Lin , Gabriel Terejanu

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-12 Andrey A Popov , Adrian Sandu

The understanding of nonlinear, high dimensional flows, e.g, atmospheric and ocean flows, is critical to address the impacts of global climate change. Data Assimilation techniques combine physical models and observational data, often in a…

Concurrent observation technologies have made high-precision real-time data available in large quantities. Data assimilation (DA) is concerned with how to combine this data with physical models to produce accurate predictions. For…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Jana de Wiljes , Xin T. Tong

Estimating the statistics of the state of a dynamical system, from partial and noisy observations, is both mathematically challenging and finds wide application. Furthermore, the applications are of great societal importance, including…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-03 J. A. Carrillo , F. Hoffmann , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

In the paper, effective filtering for a type of slow-fast data assimilation systems in Hilbert spaces is considered. Firstly, the system is reduced to a system on a random invariant manifold. Secondly, nonlinear filtering of the origin…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-21 Huijie Qiao

Ensemble filters implement sequential Bayesian estimation by representing the probability distribution by an ensemble mean and covariance. Unbiased square root ensemble filters use deterministic algorithms to produce an analysis (posterior)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-13 Evan Kwiatkowski , Jan Mandel

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a widely used method for data assimilation in high-dimensional systems, with an ensemble update step equivalent to an empirical version of the Matheron update popular in Gaussian process regression -- a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Dan MacKinlay

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich