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In this paper, we introduce a framework for solving finite-horizon multistage optimization problems under uncertainty in the presence of auxiliary data. We assume the joint distribution of the uncertain quantities is unknown, but noisy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-29 Dimitris Bertsimas , Christopher McCord

Wind energy resource assessment typically requires numerical models, but such models are too computationally intensive to consider multi-year timescales. Increasingly, unsupervised machine learning techniques are used to identify a small…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-14 Mariana C A Clare , Simon C Warder , Robert Neal , B Bhaskaran , Matthew D Piggott

Utilizing solar energy to meet space heating and domestic hot water demand is very efficient (in terms of environmental footprint as well as cost), but in order to ensure that user demand is entirely covered throughout the year needs to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Tatiana Boura , Natalia Koliou , George Meramveliotakis , Stasinos Konstantopoulos , George Kosmadakis

The increasing occurrence of continuous anomalous weather events has intensified the uncertainty in wind and photovoltaic power generation, posing significant challenges to the operation and optimization of building integrated energy…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-16 Deyi Shao , Hongru Li , Jingsheng Li , Xia Yu , Xiaoyu Sun , Bowen Han

Recent works have proposed optimal subsampling algorithms to improve computational efficiency in large datasets and to design validation studies in the presence of measurement error. Existing approaches generally fall into two categories:…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Jasper B. Yang , Thomas Lumley , Bryan E. Shepherd , Pamela A. Shaw

This paper proposes a new numerical optimization algorithm inspired by the strawberry plant for solving complicated engineering problems. Plants like strawberry develop both runners and roots for propagation and search for water resources…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2014-07-29 F. Merrikh-Bayat

Traditional solar flare forecasting approaches have mostly relied on physics-based or data-driven models using solar magnetograms, treating flare predictions as a point-in-time classification problem. This approach has limitations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Anli Ji , Chetraj Pandey , Berkay Aydin

Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-22 Jakob Runge , Reik V. Donner , Jürgen Kurths

Predicting future probable values of model parameters, is an essential pre-requisite for assessing model decision reliability in an uncertain environment. Scenario Analysis is a methodology for modelling uncertainty in water resources…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-17 Seyed Hamed Alemohammad , Reza Ardakanian , Akbar Karimi

In this paper a search algorithm is proposed to find a sub optimal path for a non-holonomic system. For this purpose the algorithm starts sampling the front part of the vehicle and moves towards the destination with a cost function. The…

Robotics · Computer Science 2016-12-21 Mahdi Morsali , Fatemeh Mohseni

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-08-26 T. N. Palmer , F. J. Doblas-Reyes , A. Weisheimer , G. J. Shutts , J. Berner , J. M. Murphy

We consider optimization problems with uncertain constraints that need to be satisfied probabilistically. When data are available, a common method to obtain feasible solutions for such problems is to impose sampled constraints, following…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-09 Henry Lam , Fengpei Li

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-16 Christian L. E. Franzke , Terence J. O'Kane , Judith Berner , Paul D. Williams , Valerio Lucarini

This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-30 Dan Li , Vassili Kitsios , David Newth , Terence John O'Kane

In this work, we propose a robust optimization approach to mitigate the impact of uncertainties in particle precipitation. Our model incorporates partial differential equations, more particular nonlinear and nonlocal population balance…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-03 Martina Kuchlbauer , Jana Dienstbier , Adeel Muneer , Hanna Hedges , Michael Stingl , Frauke Liers , Lukas Pflug

Chance constraints provide a principled framework to mitigate the risk of high-impact extreme events by modifying the controllable properties of a system. The low probability and rare occurrence of such events, however, impose severe…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Shanyin Tong , Anirudh Subramanyam , Vishwas Rao

As the world population increases and arable land decreases, it becomes vital to improve the productivity of the agricultural land available. Given the weather and soil properties, farmers need to take critical decisions such as which seed…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-26 Gunjan Sehgal , Bindu Gupta , Kaushal Paneri , Karamjit Singh , Geetika Sharma , Gautam Shroff

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-10 Hans Buehler , Blanka Horvath , Yannick Limmer , Thorsten Schmidt

Stochastic programming is widely used for energy system design optimization under uncertainty but can exponentially increase the computational complexity with the number of scenarios. Common scenario reduction techniques, like…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-14 Boyung Jürgens , Hagen Seele , Hendrik Schricker , Christiane Reinert , Niklas von der Assen

The unsupervised anomaly localization task faces the challenge of missing anomaly sample training, detecting multiple types of anomalies, and dealing with the proportion of the area of multiple anomalies. A separate teacher-student feature…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Chao Hu , Shengxin Lai