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In decentralized learning networks, predictions from many participants are combined to generate a network inference. While many studies have demonstrated performance benefits of combining multiple model predictions, existing strategies…

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-10 Ming Fan , Dan Lu , Deeksha Rastogi , Eric M. Pierce

This study explores integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with idealised climate models to address key parameterisation challenges in climate science. Current climate models rely on complex mathematical parameterisations to represent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-17 Pritthijit Nath , Henry Moss , Emily Shuckburgh , Mark Webb

An AI-based Limited-Area Model (LAM) is developed for dynamical downscaling over the Southern Great Plains and the southeastern United States, with strong generalization abilities under diverse boundary conditions. The model is trained…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-25 Yingkai Sha , Tracy Hertneky , Ethan Gutmann , Seth McGinnis , Rachel McCrary , Lulin Xue , David John Gagne , Kathryn Newman , Andrew Newman

Machine learning models have shown great success in predicting weather up to two weeks ahead, outperforming process-based benchmarks. However, existing approaches mostly focus on the prediction task, and do not incorporate the necessary…

Cloud computing offers on-demand resource access, regulated by Service-Level Agreements (SLAs) between consumers and Cloud Service Providers (CSPs). SLA violations can impact efficiency and CSP profitability. In this work, we propose an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Siana Rizwan , Tasnim Ahmed , Salimur Choudhury

Amounts of historical data collected increase and business intelligence applicability with automatic forecasting of time series are in high demand. While no single time series modeling method is universal to all types of dynamics,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-18 Evaldas Vaiciukynas , Paulius Danenas , Vilius Kontrimas , Rimantas Butleris

We develop a spatio-temporal model to forecast sensor output at five locations in North East England. The signal is described using coupled dynamic linear models, with spatial effects specified by a Gaussian process. Data streams are…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-15 Yingying Lai , Andrew Golightly , Richard Boys

Current climate models often struggle with accuracy because they lack sufficient resolution, a limitation caused by computational constraints. This reduces the precision of weather forecasts and long-term climate predictions. To address…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-03 Adib Bazgir , Yuwen Zhang

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-08-26 T. N. Palmer , F. J. Doblas-Reyes , A. Weisheimer , G. J. Shutts , J. Berner , J. M. Murphy

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-17 Charlie Kirkwood , Theo Economou , Henry Odbert , Nicolas Pugeault

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-05 Jerry Lin , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Tom Beucler , Sungduk Yu , Michael Pritchard

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

Deep Learning has recently emerged as a perfect prognosis downscaling technique to compute high-resolution fields from large-scale coarse atmospheric data. Despite their promising results to reproduce the observed local variability, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Jose González-Abad , Jorge Baño-Medina , Ignacio Heredia Cachá

The rising number of extreme climate events in the past decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, given the sea-surface temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-13 Jingyang Wu , Rohitash Chandra

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

The classification of weather data involves categorizing meteorological phenomena into classes, thereby facilitating nuanced analyses and precise predictions for various sectors such as agriculture, aviation, and disaster management. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Elaheh Jafarigol , Theodore Trafalis

Deep learning models have gained popularity in climate science, following their success in computer vision and other domains. For instance, researchers are increasingly employing deep learning techniques for downscaling climate data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Xingying Huang

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by…