Related papers: Estimating Tipping Points in Feedback-Driven Finan…
We reformulate the Cont-Bouchaud model of financial markets in terms of classical "super-spins" where the spin value is a measure of the number of individual traders represented by a portfolio manager of an investment agency. We then extend…
We report the study of sudden transitions or tipping in a collection of systems induced due to multiplexing with another network of systems. The emergent dynamics of oscillators on one layer can undergo a sudden transition to steady state…
We introduce a simple model for addressing the controversy in the study of financial systems, sometimes taken as brownian-like processes and other as critical systems with fluctuations of arbitrary magnitude. The model considers a…
In this paper we extend the series of our studies on the properties of an interacting particle model for market microstructure. In our earlier work we defined a Markov process on the majority opinion of the agents, obtained the transition…
Interference between treated and untreated units is a source of bias in marketplace experiments. In this paper, we specifically consider pricing interventions, in which a platform seeks to adjust base pricing levels at the marketplace level…
A new simple model of diffusion of innovations in a social network with upgrading costs is introduced. Agents are characterized by a single real variable, their technological level. According to local information agents decide whether to…
Financial markets, being spectacular examples of complex systems, display rich correlation structures among price returns of different assets. The correlation structures change drastically, akin to phase transitions in physical phenomena,…
Human decision-making in real-life deviates significantly from the optimal decisions made by fully rational agents, primarily due to computational limitations or psychological biases. While existing studies in behavioral finance have…
The early detection of tipping points, which describe a rapid departure from a stable state, is an important theoretical and practical challenge. Tipping points are most commonly associated with the disappearance of steady-state or periodic…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
This work is concerned with autoregressive prediction of turning points in financial price sequences. Such turning points are critical local extrema points along a series, which mark the start of new swings. Predicting the future time of…
A numerical agent-based spin model of financial markets, based on the Potts model from statistical mechanics, with a novel interpretation of the spin variable (as regards financial-market models) is presented. In this model, a value of the…
Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…
Prediction markets are often used as mechanisms to aggregate information about a future event, for example, whether a candidate will win an election. The event is typically assumed to be exogenous. In reality, participants may influence the…
Using Random Matrix Theory, we propose a universal and versatile tool to reveal the existence of "fleeting modes", i.e. portfolios that carry statistically significant excess risk, signalling ex-post a change in the correlation structure in…
We develop a topology data analysis-based method to detect early signs for critical transitions in financial data. From the time-series of multiple stock prices, we build time-dependent correlation networks, which exhibit topological…
The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through…
An appropriate calibration and forecasting of volatility and market risk are some of the main challenges faced by companies that have to manage the uncertainty inherent to their investments or funding operations such as banks, pension funds…
We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling…
Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices.…