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The accuracy of Bayesian inference can be negatively affected by the use of inaccurate forward models. In the case of gravitational-wave inference, accurate but computationally expensive waveform models are sometimes substituted with faster…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-04-02 Miaoxin Liu , Xiao-Dong Li , Alvin J. K. Chua

Models of gravitational waveforms play a critical role in detecting and characterizing the gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary coalescences. Waveforms from numerical relativity (NR), while highly accurate, are too computationally…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2018-01-03 Zoheyr Doctor , Ben Farr , Daniel E. Holz , Michael Pürrer

Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-23 Christopher J. Moore , Jonathan R. Gair

The increasing sensitivity of current and upcoming gravitational-wave (GW) detectors poses stringent requirements on the accuracy of the GW models used for data analysis. If these requirements are not met, systematic errors could dominate…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-08-29 Lorenzo Pompili , Alessandra Buonanno , Michael Pürrer

As gravitational wave (GW) detector networks continue to improve in sensitivity, the demand on the accuracy of waveform models which predict the GW signals from compact binary coalescences is becoming more stringent. At high signal-to-noise…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-10-23 Ritesh Bachhar , Michael Pürrer , Stephen R. Green

Gravitational-wave parameter estimation for compact binary signals typically relies on sequential estimation of the properties of the detector Gaussian noise and of the binary parameters. This procedure assumes that the noise variance,…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-11-14 Cailin Plunkett , Sophie Hourihane , Katerina Chatziioannou

Gravitational-wave (GW) parameter estimation typically assumes that instrumental noise is Gaussian and stationary. Obvious departures from this idealization are typically handled on a case-by-case basis, e.g., through bespoke procedures to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-15 Ronan Legin , Maximiliano Isi , Kaze W. K. Wong , Yashar Hezaveh , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

Inferring the properties of colliding black holes from gravitational-wave observations is subject to systematic errors arising from modelling uncertainties. Although the accuracy of each model can be calculated through comparison to…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-08-07 Charlie Hoy , Sarp Akcay , Jake Mac Uilliam , Jonathan E. Thompson

When using incorrect or inaccurate signal models to perform parameter estimation on a gravitational wave signal, biased parameter estimates will in general be obtained. For a single event this bias may be consistent with the posterior, but…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-01 Jonathan R. Gair , Christopher J. Moore

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a popular nonparametric Bayesian method that provides predictive uncertainty estimates and is widely used in safety-critical applications. While prior research has introduced various uncertainty bounds,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Junyi Liu , Stanley Kok

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a class of Kernel methods that have shown to be very useful in geoscience and remote sensing applications for parameter retrieval, model inversion, and emulation. They are widely used because they are simple,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 J. Emmanuel Johnson , Valero Laparra , Gustau Camps-Valls

Parameterised models that predict the gravitational-wave (GW) signal from merging black holes are used to extract source properties from GW observations. The majority of research in this area has focused on developing methods capable of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-09-09 Sebastian Khan

We develop a computational procedure to estimate the covariance hyperparameters for semiparametric Gaussian process regression models with additive noise. Namely, the presented method can be used to efficiently estimate the variance of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Siavash Ameli , Shawn C. Shadden

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a fundamental model used in machine learning. Owing to its accurate prediction with uncertainty and versatility in handling various data structures via kernels, GPR has been successfully used in various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Yuya Yoshikawa , Tomoharu Iwata

Estimating the parameters of gravitational wave signals detected by ground-based detectors requires an understanding of the properties of the detectors' noise. In particular, the most commonly used likelihood function for gravitational wave…

Bayesian inference of gravitational wave signals is subject to systematic error due to modelling uncertainty in waveform signal models, coined approximants. A growing collection of approximants are available which use different approaches…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2020-03-25 Gregory Ashton , Sebastian Khan

In order to extract information about the properties of compact binaries, we must estimate the noise power spectral density of gravitational-wave data, which depends on the properties of the gravitational-wave detector. In practice, it is…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-18 Colm Talbot , Eric Thrane

Gaussian processes (GPs) have gained popularity as flexible machine learning models for regression and function approximation with an in-built method for uncertainty quantification. However, GPs suffer when the amount of training data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-26 Jonas Latz , Aretha L. Teckentrup , Simon Urbainczyk

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a popular regression method, which unlike most Machine Learning techniques, provides estimates of uncertainty for its predictions. These uncertainty estimates however, are based on the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-29 Harris Papadopoulos

Studies have shown that the use of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) is among the approaches with the highest potential to detect very low-frequency gravitational waves in the near future. Although the capture of gravitational waves (GWs) by PTAs…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-10-13 MengNi Chen , Yuanhong Zhong , Yi Feng , Di Li , Jin Li
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