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Geo-referenced data are characterized by an inherent spatial dependence due to the geographical proximity. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process to describe the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Philipp Otto , Osman Doğan , Süleyman Taşpınar

We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-15 Giorgio Calzolari , Roxana Halbleib , Christian Mücher

This paper introduces a new kind of seasonal fractional autoregressive process (SFAR) driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The new model includes a standard seasonal AR model and fGn. {The estimation of the parameters of this new…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-01 Chunhao Cai , Yiwu Shang

This paper offers a new approach for estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes. On the contrary, we only suppose that the volatility can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Danilo Mercurio , Vladimir Spokoiny

Here, we have analysed a GARCH(1,1) model with the aim to fit higher order moments for different companies' stock prices. When we assume a gaussian conditional distribution, we fail to capture any empirical data when fitting the first three…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-31 Luke De Clerk , Sergey Savel'ev

This paper derives the analytic form of the $h$-step ahead prediction density of a GARCH(1,1) process under Gaussian innovations, with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve. The contributions of the paper consists both in the derivation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-05 Karim M. Abadir , Alessandra Luati , Paolo Paruolo

HYGARCH model is basically used to model long-range dependence in volatility. We propose Markov switch smooth-transition HYGARCH model, where the volatility in each state is a time-dependent convex combination of GARCH and FIGARCH. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-05 Ferdous Mohammadi Basatini , Saeid Rezakhah

Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-02 Zeda Xu , John Liechty , Sebastian Benthall , Nicholas Skar-Gislinge , Christopher McComb

We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Konstantinos Fokianos , Lionel Truquet

We attempt to unveil the fine structure of volatility feedback effects in the context of general quadratic autoregressive (QARCH) models, which assume that today's volatility can be expressed as a general quadratic form of the past daily…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-28 Rémy Chicheportiche , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-24 Huaiyu Hu , Ashis Gangopadhyay

Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-24 Aleksejus Kononovicius , Julius Ruseckas

This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-05 Chew Lian Chua , David Gunawan , Sandy Suardi

Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan , Skye A. Wills

This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-28 Huiling Yuan , Guodong Li , Junhui Wang

We investigate the properties of a continuous time GARCH process as the solution to a L\'evy driven stochastic functional integral equation. This process occurs as a weak limit of a sequence of discrete time GARCH processes as the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-25 Adam Nie

When considering the problem of forecasting a continuous-time stochastic process over an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past, the notion of Autoregressive Hilbert space processes (ARH) arises. This model can be seen as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-15 Jairo Cugliari

In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-07-04 Kim Song Yon , Kim Mun Chol

This paper introduces a multivariate spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on a vec-representation. The model includes instantaneous spatial autoregressive spill-over effects in the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-27 Philipp Otto

This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-04 Jozef Barunik , Tomas Krehlik , Lukas Vacha