English
Related papers

Related papers: Adaptive estimation for bifurcating Markov chains

200 papers

This paper considers the problem of adaptive estimation of a mean pattern in a randomly shifted curve model. We show that this problem can be transformed into a linear inverse problem, where the density of the random shifts plays the role…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-21 Jérémie Bigot , Sébastien Gadat

The literature on statistical learning for time series often assumes asymptotic independence or "mixing" of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing coefficients…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-09 Daniel J. McDonald , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , Mark Schervish

This study investigates the variational posterior convergence rates of inverse problems for partial differential equations (PDEs) with parameters in Besov spaces $B_{pp}^\alpha$ ($p \geq 1$) which are modeled naturally in a Bayesian manner…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Shaokang Zu , Junxiong Jia , Zhiguo Wang

Majority-vote ensembles achieve variance reduction by averaging over diverse, approximately independent base learners. When training data exhibits Markov dependence, as in time-series forecasting, reinforcement learning (RL) replay buffers,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Ibne Farabi Shihab , Sanjeda Akter , Anuj Sharma

The Nummellin's split chain construction allows to decompose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) trajectory into i.i.d. "excursions". RegenerativeMCMC algorithms based on this technique use a random number of samples. They have been proposed…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-18 Krzysztof Latuszynski , Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro

We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-07 Michalis K. Titsias

We study the Electrical Impedance Tomography Bayesian inverse problem for recovering the conductivity given noisy measurements of the voltage on some boundary surface electrodes. The uncertain conductivity depends linearly on a countable…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Quang Huy Pham , Viet Ha Hoang

We consider density estimation for Besov spaces when each sample is quantized to only a limited number of bits. We provide a noninteractive adaptive estimator that exploits the sparsity of wavelet bases, along with a simulate-and-infer…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-22 Jayadev Acharya , Clément L. Canonne , Aditya Vikram Singh , Himanshu Tyagi

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Shubhada Agrawal , Prashanth L. A. , Siva Theja Maguluri

In this paper, we study the problem of estimating a Markov chain $X$(signal) from its noisy partial information $Y$, when the transition probability kernel depends on some unknown parameters. Our goal is to compute the conditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anastasia Papavasiliou

Stochastic optimization in learning and inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate gradients when exact computation is intractable. However, finite-time MCMC estimators are biased, and reducing this bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Gabriel Lang , Sylvain Le Corff , Julien Stoehr , Sobihan Surendran

We consider the stochastic integrals of multivariate point processes and study their concentration phenomena. In particular, we obtain a Bernstein type of concentration inequality through Dol\'eans-Dade exponential formula and a uniform…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-24 Hanchao Wang , Zhengyan Lin , Zhonggen Su

A formula for the transition density of a Markov process defined by an infinite-dimensional stochastic equation is given in terms of the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck bridge and a useful lower estimate on the density is provided. As a consequence,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 B. Goldys , B. Maslowski

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-03 R. Casarin , L. Dalla Valle , F. Leisen

This article shows how coupled Markov chains that meet exactly after a random number of iterations can be used to generate unbiased estimators of the solutions of the Poisson equation. Through this connection, we re-derive known unbiased…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-10 Randal Douc , Pierre E. Jacob , Anthony Lee , Dootika Vats

Let $\pi$ denote the intractable posterior density that results when the likelihood from a multivariate linear regression model with errors from a scale mixture of normals is combined with the standard non-informative prior. There is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Qian Qin , James P. Hobert

Mostof the existing literature on supervised machine learning problems focuses on the case when the training data set is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many practical problems are characterized by temporal dependence and strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-23 Nikola Sandrić , Stjepan Šebek

Inference on modern Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often relies on a variational inference treatment, imposing violated assumptions of independence and the form of the posterior. Traditional MCMC approaches avoid these assumptions at the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Ethan Goan , Dimitri Perrin , Kerrie Mengersen , Clinton Fookes

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the common marginal density function of weakly dependent processes. The accuracy of estimation is measured using pointwise risks. We propose a datadriven procedure using kernel rules. The bandwidth…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-04 Karine Bertin , Nicolas Klutchnikoff

Markov chains and diffusion processes are indispensable tools in machine learning and statistics that are used for inference, sampling, and modeling. With the growth of large-scale datasets, the computational cost associated with simulating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-31 Jonathan H. Huggins , James Zou