Related papers: Hawkes and INAR($\infty$) processes
The purpose of this work is to build a framework that allows for an in-depth study of various generalisations to inhomogeneous space of models of Borodin-Ferrari, Dieker-Warren, Nordenstam, Warren-Windridge of interacting particles in…
This paper discusses a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, where the rate function is the exponential function. We call these processes loglinear Hawkes processes. In the main theorem, we give sufficient conditions for explosion…
Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a class of point processes in which events at different coordinates interact through mutual excitation. The weighted adjacency matrix of the MHP encodes the strength of the relations, and shares its…
We propose a novel probabilistic framework to model continuous-time interaction events data. Our goal is to infer the \emph{implicit} community structure underlying the temporal interactions among entities, and also to exploit how the…
Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…
Temporal Point Processes (TPPs), especially Hawkes Process are commonly used for modeling asynchronous event sequences data such as financial transactions and user behaviors in social networks. Due to the strong fitting ability of neural…
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of suitably time-modulated Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed kernels in a nearly unstable regime. We show that, under appropriate scaling, both the intensity processes and the rescaled Hawkes…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…
The extent to which a matching engine can cloud the modelling of underlying order submission and management processes in a financial market remains an unanswered concern with regards to market models. Here we consider a 10-variate Hawkes…
Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…
We introduce and explore a new class of stationary time series models for variance matrices based on a constructive definition exploiting inverse Wishart distribution theory. The main class of models explored is a novel class of stationary,…
We propose a factor network autoregressive (FNAR) model for time series with complex network structures. The coefficients of the model reflect many different types of connections between economic agents ("multilayer network"), which are…
The paper develops a general flexible framework for Network Autoregressive Processes (NAR), wherein the response of each node linearly depends on its past values, a prespecified linear combination of neighboring nodes and a set of…
This study considers a new multi-term urn process that has a correlation in the same term and temporal correlation. The objective is to clarify the relationship between the urn model and the Hawkes process. Correlation in the same term is…
When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…
The functional linear model extends the notion of linear regression to the case where the response and covariates are iid elements of an infinite dimensional Hilbert space. The unknown to be estimated is a Hilbert-Schmidt operator, whose…
Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…
We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…
We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…