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The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless population are well-mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics not only depends on fitness differences but also…
We study the dynamics of epidemic spreading processes aimed at spontaneous dissemination of information updates in populations with complex connectivity patterns. The influence of the topological structure of the network in these processes…
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we…
Decision circuits have been developed to perform efficient evaluation of influence diagrams [Bhattacharjya and Shachter, 2007], building on the advances in arithmetic circuits for belief network inference [Darwiche,2003]. In the process of…
The structure of complex networks has long been understood to play a role in transmission and spreading phenomena on a graph. This behavior is difficult to model analytically and is most often modeled numerically. Such networks form an…
We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
Parameter inference and state estimation in stochastic and partially observed biological systems remain major problems in mathematical biology. In this work, we introduce a two-dimensional lattice graph model for the spread of infectious…
Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…
In a networked system, functionality can be seriously endangered when nodes are infected, due to internal random failures or a contagious virus that develops into an epidemic. Given a snapshot of the network representing the nodes' states…
The science of networks has revolutionised research into the dynamics of interacting elements. It could be argued that epidemiology in particular has embraced the potential of network theory more than any other discipline. Here we review…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a…
In this brief, we study epidemic spreading dynamics taking place in complex networks. We specifically investigate the effect of synergy, where multiple interactions between nodes result in a combined effect larger than the simple sum of…
Information dissemination intricately intertwines with the dynamics of infectious diseases in the contemporary interconnected world. Recognizing the critical role of public awareness, individual vaccination choices appear to be an essential…
Random walk is one of the basic mechanisms found in many network applications. We study the epidemic spreading dynamics driven by biased random walks on complex networks. In our epidemic model, each time infected nodes constantly spread…
We investigate the sensitivity of epidemic behavior to a bounded susceptibility constraint -- susceptible nodes are infected by their neighbors via the regular SI/SIS dynamics, but subject to a cap on the infection rate. Such a constraint…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…