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Many statistical models are given in the form of non-normalized densities with an intractable normalization constant. Since maximum likelihood estimation is computationally intensive for these models, several estimation methods have been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-01 Takeru Matsuda , Masatoshi Uehara , Aapo Hyvarinen

We have recently proposed a new information-based approach to model selection, the Frequentist Information Criterion (FIC), that reconciles information-based and frequentist inference. The purpose of this current paper is to provide a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-23 Paul A. Wiggins

Model selection in linear regression models is a major challenge when dealing with high-dimensional data where the number of available measurements (sample size) is much smaller than the dimension of the parameter space. Traditional methods…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-05 Prakash B. Gohain , Magnus Jansson

The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

Graphical models are frequently used to explore networks, such as genetic networks, among a set of variables. This is usually carried out via exploring the sparsity of the precision matrix of the variables under consideration. Penalized…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-17 Jianqing Fan , Yang Feng , Yichao Wu

We propose a penalized likelihood method to fit the linear discriminant analysis model when the predictor is matrix valued. We simultaneously estimate the means and the precision matrix, which we assume has a Kronecker product…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-31 Aaron J. Molstad , Adam J. Rothman

A robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented for linear, time invariant systems with unknown dynamics and subject to bounded measurement noise. The system is characterized by an impulse response model, which is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-21 Anilkumar Parsi , Andrea Iannelli , Mingzhou Yin , Mohammad Khosravi , Roy S. Smith

In multivariate extreme value analysis, the estimation of the dependence structure in extremes is demanding, especially in the context of high-dimensional data. Therefore, a common approach is to reduce the model dimension by considering…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Lucas Butsch , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

For prediction models developed on clustered data that do not account for cluster heterogeneity in model parameterization, it is crucial to use cluster-based validation to assess model generalizability on unseen clusters. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Jiaxing Qiu , Douglas E. Lake , Pavel Chernyavskiy , Teague R. Henry

In this article we study the asymptotic predictive optimality of a model selection criterion based on the cross-validatory predictive density, already available in the literature. For a dependent variable and associated explanatory…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Arijit Chakrabarti , Tapas Samanta

Iterative learning control (ILC) improves the performance of a repetitive system by learning from previous trials. ILC can be combined with Model Predictive Control (MPC) to mitigate non-repetitive disturbances, thus improving overall…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-26 Riccardo Zuliani , Efe C. Balta , Alisa Rupenyan , John Lygeros

This paper applies the recently axiomatized Optimum Information Principle (minimize the Kullback-Leibler information subject to all relevant information) to nonparametric density estimation, which provides a theoretical foundation as well…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-28 Alexis Akira Toda

We propose a novel method for selective classification (SC), a problem which allows a classifier to abstain from predicting some instances, thus trading off accuracy against coverage (the fraction of instances predicted). In contrast to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Aditya Gangrade , Anil Kag , Venkatesh Saligrama

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…

Computation · Statistics 2025-10-27 Florian D. van Leeuwen , Sara van Erp

An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-25 Henrik Nyman , Jie Xiong , Johan Pensar , Jukka Corander

Effective model selection is critical in symbolic regression (SR) to identify mathematical expressions that balance accuracy and complexity, and have low expected error on unseen data. Many modern implementations of genetic programming (GP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Ali Soltani , Gabriel Kronberger , Fabricio Olivetti de Franca , Mattia Billa , Alessandro Lucantonio

We study the problem of learning a directed acyclic graph from data generated according to an additive, non-linear structural equation model with Gaussian noise. We express each non-linear function through a basis expansion, and derive a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Xiaozhu Zhang , Nir Keret , Ali Shojaie , Armeen Taeb

We consider penalized regression models under a unified framework where the particular method is determined by the form of the penalty term. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that incorporates both sparse and dense settings and show how…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-25 Ding Xiang , Galin L. Jones

Selecting the number of regimes in Hidden Markov models is an important problem. There are many criteria that are used to select this number, such as Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), integrated…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-23 Bouchra R Nasri , Bruno N Rémillard , Mamadou Y Thioub

We revisit Cox's proportional hazard models and LASSO in the aim of improving feature selection in survival analysis. Unlike traditional methods relying on cross-validation or BIC, the penalty parameter $\lambda$ is directly tuned for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Maxime van Cutsem , Sylvain Sardy