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We construct a Bayesian sequential test of two simple hypotheses about the value of the unobservable drift coefficient of a Brownian motion, with a possibility to change the initial decision at subsequent moments of time for some penalty.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Mikhail Zhitlukhin

We consider a fractional Brownian motion with unknown linear drift such that the drift coefficient has a prior normal distribution and construct a sequential test for the hypothesis that the drift is positive versus the alternative that it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Alexey Muravlev , Mikhail Zhitlukhin

In this note we introduce and solve a soft classification version of the famous Bayesian sequential testing problem for a Brownian motion's drift. We establish that the value function is the unique non-trivial solution to a free boundary…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Steven Campbell , Yuchong Zhang

Given a Wiener process with unknown and unobservable drift, we try to estimate this drift as effectively but also as quickly as possible, in the presence of a quadratic penalty for the estimation error and of a fixed, positive cost per unit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-24 Erik Ekström , Ioannis Karatzas , Juozas Vaicenavicius

We solve the problem of optimal stopping of a Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the stopping time's distribution is a given measure consisting of finitely-many atoms. In particular, we show that this problem can be converted to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-07 Erhan Bayraktar , Christopher W. Miller

We study a controlled version of the Bayesian sequential testing problem for the drift of a Wiener process, in which the observer exercises discretion over the signal intensity. This control incurs a running cost that reflects the resource…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-24 Steven Campbell , Georgy Gaitsgori , Richard Groenewald

We formulate and solve a variant of the quickest detection problem which features false negatives. A standard Brownian motion acquires a drift at an independent exponential random time which is not directly observable. Based on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Tiziano De Angelis , Jhanvi Garg , Quan Zhou

Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in three dimensions, whose two spatial coordinates are standard Brownian motions with zero drift, and the remaining (unknown) spatial coordinate is a standard Brownian motion with a non-zero drift.…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-19 Philip Ernst , Goran Peskir , Quan Zhou

This paper studies a problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for a sequence of scaled counting processes whose weak limit is a Brownian motion with an unknown drift. The main result of the paper is that the limit of the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Asaf Cohen

We study the Bayesian problems of detecting a change in the drift rate of an observable diffusion process with linear and exponential penalty costs for a detection delay. The optimal times of alarms are found as the first times at which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-08 Pavel V. Gapeev , Albert N. Shiryaev

Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in two or more dimensions, whose coordinate processes are standard Brownian motions with zero drift initially, and then at some random/unobservable time, one of the coordinate processes gets a…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Philip A. Ernst , Goran Peskir

We consider an optimal control problem, where a Brownian motion with drift is sequentially observed, and the sign of the drift coefficient changes at jump times of a symmetric two-state Markov process. The Markov process itself is not…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-06 Alexey Muravlev , Mikhail Urusov , Mikhail Zhitlukhin

We derive the first-passage-time statistics of a Brownian motion driven by an exponential time-dependent drift up to a threshold. This process corresponds to the signal integration in a simple neuronal model supplemented with an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-04-30 Eugenio Urdapilleta

We consider optimal stopping problems for a Brownian motion and a geometric Brownian motion with a "disorder", assuming that the moment of a disorder is uniformly distributed on a finite interval. Optimal stopping rules are found as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-18 A. N. Shiryaev , M. V. Zhitlukhin

In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-29 Robert C. Dalang , Albert N. Shiryaev

The multiple disorder problem seeks to determine a sequence of stopping times which are as close as possible to the unknown times of disorders at which the observation process changes its probability characteristics. We derive closed form…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-02 Pavel V. Gapeev

We solve an optimal stopping problem where the underlying diffusion is Brownian motion on $\bf R$ with a positive drift changing at zero. It is assumed that the drift $\mu_1$ on the negative side is smaller than the drift $\mu_2$ on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-15 Ernesto Mordecki , Paavo Salminen

We study the sequential testing problem of two alternative hypotheses regarding an unknown parameter in an exponential family when observations are costly. In a Bayesian setting, the problem can be embedded in a Markovian framework. Using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Erik Ekström , Yuqiong Wang

This paper solves a Bayes sequential impulse control problem for a diffusion, whose drift has an unobservable parameter with a change point. The partially-observed problem is reformulated into one with full observations, via a change of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-08-19 Lokman A. Abbas-Turki , Ioannis Karatzas , Qinghua Li

The first-passage-time problem for a Brownian motion with alternating infinitesimal moments through a constant boundary is considered under the assumption that the time intervals between consecutive changes of these moments are described by…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-28 A. Di Crescenzo , E. Di Nardo , L. M. Ricciardi
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