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In this paper the filtering of partially observed diffusions, with discrete-time observations, is considered. It is assumed that only biased approximations of the diffusion can be obtained, for choice of an accuracy parameter indexed by…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-19 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody J. H. Law , Yan Zhou

The term ``sequential Monte Carlo methods'' or, equivalently, ``particle filters,'' refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (\pi_t). We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Nicolas Chopin

Monte Carlo criticality simulations are widely used in nuclear safety demonstrations, as they offer an arbitrarily precise estimation of global and local tallies while making very few assumptions. However, since the inception of such…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-11 Kévin Fröhlicher , Eric Dumonteil , Loïc Thulliez , Julien Taforeau , Mariya Brovchenko

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) has become an important methodology in applied mathematics for reducing the computational cost of weak approximations. For many problems, it is well-known that strong pairwise coupling of numerical solutions in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-11 Neil K. Chada , Håkon Hoel , Ajay Jasra , Georgios E. Zouraris

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter learning when the studied model exhibits random discontinuous jumps in behaviour. To facilitate the learning of high dimensional parameter sets, such as those associated to neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-19 John-Joseph Brady , Yuhui Luo , Wenwu Wang , Víctor Elvira , Yunpeng Li

In this paper we consider the filtering of partially observed multi-dimensional diffusion processes that are observed regularly at discrete times. This is a challenging problem which requires the use of advanced numerical schemes based upon…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Hernando Ombao

We introduce a new multilevel ensemble Kalman filter method (MLEnKF) which consists of a hierarchy of independent samples of ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF). This new MLEnKF method is fundamentally different from the preexisting method…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Håkon Hoel , Gaukhar Shaimerdenova , Raúl Tempone

The classical Langevin Monte Carlo method looks for samples from a target distribution by descending the samples along the gradient of the target distribution. The method enjoys a fast convergence rate. However, the numerical cost is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-07 Zhiyan Ding , Qin Li

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Aaron Pim , Tristan Pryer

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe

While generally considered computationally expensive, Uncertainty Quantification using Monte Carlo sampling remains beneficial for applications with uncertainties of high dimension. As an extension of the naive Monte Carlo method, the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Robert Hahn , Sebastian Schöps

The particle filter (PF), also known as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), approximates high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants in the discrete-time setting. To reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jianfeng Lu , Yuliang Wang

We present a novel approach for improving particle filters for multi-target tracking. The suggested approach is based on drift homotopy for stochastic differential equations. Drift homotopy is used to design a Markov Chain Monte Carlo step…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2011-02-11 Vasileios Maroulas , Panagiotis Stinis

We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-05 Jan Kudlicka , Lawrence M. Murray , Thomas B. Schön , Fredrik Lindsten

Feedback particle filter (FPF) is a Monte-Carlo (MC) algorithm to approximate the solution of a stochastic filtering problem. In contrast to conventional particle filters, the Bayesian update step in FPF is implemented via a mean-field type…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-23 Amirhossein Taghvaei , Prashant G. Mehta

In this article we consider the application of multilevel Monte Carlo, for the estimation of normalizing constants. In particular we will make use of the filtering algorithm, the ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter (EnKBF), which is an N-particle…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Hamza Ruzayqat , Neil K. Chada , Ajay Jasra

In this paper, we are interested in deriving non-asymptotic error bounds for the multilevel Monte Carlo method. As a first step, we deal with the explicit Euler discretization of stochastic differential equations with a constant diffusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-19 Benjamin Jourdain , Ahmed Kebaier

A common way to simulate the transport and spread of pollutants in the atmosphere is via stochastic Lagrangian dispersion models. Mathematically, these models describe turbulent transport processes with stochastic differential equations…

This work is motivated by the need to study the impact of data uncertainties and material imperfections on the solution to optimal control problems constrained by partial differential equations. We consider a pathwise optimal control…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Ahmad Ahmad Ali , Elisabeth Ullmann , Michael Hinze

We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Masahiro Fujisawa , Issei Sato