Related papers: A large deviations approach to limit theory for he…

The goal of this paper is two-fold: 1. We review classical and recent measures of serial extremal dependence in a strictly stationary time series as well as their estimation. 2. We discuss recent concepts of heavy-tailed time series,…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation…

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…

The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…

We consider a borderline case: the central limit theorem for a strictly stationary time series with infinite variance but a Gaussian limit. In the iid case a well-known sufficient condition for this central limit theorem is regular…

This paper introduces novel frameworks for large deviations and metastability analysis in heavy-tailed stochastic dynamical systems. We develop and apply these frameworks within the context of stochastic difference equation $X^\eta_{j+1}(x)…

Time-irreversible stochastic processes are frequently used in natural sciences to explain non-equilibrium phenomena and to design efficient stochastic algorithms. Our main goal in this thesis is to analyse their dynamics by means of large…

We prove a sequence of limiting results about weakly dependent stationary and regularly varying stochastic processes in discrete time. After deducing the limiting distribution for individual clusters of extremes, we present a new type of…

We study large deviations asymptotics for a class of unbounded additive functionals, interpreted as normalized accumulated areas, of one-dimensional Langevin diffusions with sub-linear gradient drifts. Our results provide parametric…

In this paper, we revisit the proof of the large deviations principle of Wiener chaoses partially given by Borel, and then by Ledoux in its full form. We show that some heavy-tail phenomena observed in large deviations can be explained by…

In this paper we prove large deviations results for partial sums constructed from the solution to a stochastic recurrence equation. We assume Kesten's condition [Acta Math. 131 (1973) 207-248] under which the solution of the stochastic…

Motivated by the study of the time evolution of random dynamical systems arising in a vast variety of domains --- ranging from physics to ecology ---, we establish conditions for the occurrence of a non-trivial asymptotic behaviour for…

We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…

We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we…

Drift analysis is one of the state-of-the-art techniques for the runtime analysis of randomized search heuristics (RSHs) such as evolutionary algorithms (EAs), simulated annealing etc. The vast majority of existing drift theorems yield…