Related papers: VARX-L: Structured Regularization for Large Vector…

Model misspecification in multivariate econometric models can strongly influence estimates of quantities of interest such as structural parameters, forecast distributions or responses to structural shocks, even more so if higher-order…

We develop a Functional Augmented Vector Autoregression (FunVAR) model to explicitly incorporate firm-level heterogeneity observed in more than one dimension and study its interaction with aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. Our…

This article proposes novel estimation methods for the Matrix Autoregressive (MAR) model, specifically adaptations of the Yule-Walker equations and Burg's method, addressing limitations in existing techniques. The MAR model, by maintaining…

Visual Autoregressive Models (VAR) offer efficient and high-quality image generation but suffer from computational redundancy due to repeated Transformer calls at increasing resolutions. We introduce a dynamic Mixture-of-Experts router…

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference…

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive…

Many problems in signal processing require finding sparse solutions to under-determined, or ill-conditioned, linear systems of equations. When dealing with real-world data, the presence of outliers and impulsive noise must also be accounted…

Volatility forecasting in financial markets is a topic that has received more attention from scholars. In this paper, we propose a new volatility forecasting model that combines the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with a family of…

While matrix variate regression models have been studied in many existing works, classical statistical and computational methods for the analysis of the regression coefficient estimation are highly affected by high dimensional and noisy…

This paper discusses the practical use of the saddle variational formulation for the weakly-constrained 4D-VAR method in data assimilation. It is shown that the method, in its original form, may produce erratic results or diverge because of…

Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…

We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the…

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…

We present the R-package mgm for the estimation of k-order Mixed Graphical Models (MGMs) and mixed Vector Autoregressive (mVAR) models in high-dimensional data. These are a useful extensions of graphical models for only one variable type,…

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) frequently hallucinate due to their reliance on fragile, linear reasoning and weak visual grounding. We propose Visual Attention Reasoning (VAR), a reinforcement learning framework that reformulates…

When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…

Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multi-country datasets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this paper, we develop fast…

High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional VAR…

As a popular tool for producing meaningful and interpretable models, large-scale sparse learning works efficiently when the underlying structures are indeed or close to sparse. However, naively applying the existing regularization methods…

We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…