Related papers: The Modelling of Random Phenomena
There is great interest in predicting rare and extreme events in complex systems, and in particular, understanding the role of network topology in facilitating such events. In this work, we show that degree dispersion -- the fact that the…
Natural disaster strikes at any given moment from seemingly out of nowhere Akin to earthquake that strongly affects human with different magnitudes through the course of time. The main aim of this study is the fractal analysis of seismic…
Molecular simulations provide a powerful means to unravel the complex relationships between network architecture and the mechanical response of polymer networks, with a particular emphasis on rupture and fracture phenomena. Although…
This text presents an unified approach of probability and statistics in the pursuit of understanding and computation of randomness in engineering or physical or social system with prediction with generalizability. Starting from elementary…
Using fine-grained, publicly available data, this paper studies the short-term association between environmental factors, i.e., weather and air pollution characteristics, and weekly mortality rates in small geographical regions in Europe.…
In recent years there has been a substantial increase in the availability of datasets which contain information about the location and timing of an event or group of events and the application of methods to analyse spatio-temporal datasets…
Planning the evacuation of people from crowded places, such as squares, stadiums, or indoor arenas during emergency scenarios is a fundamental task that authorities must deal with. This article summarizes the work of the authors to simulate…
Using large scale numerical simulations we analyze the statistical properties of fracture in the two dimensional random spring model and compare it with its scalar counterpart: the random fuse model. We first consider the process of crack…
We point out that the functional form describing the frequency of sizes of events in complex systems (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires, bursts of neuronal activity) can be obtained from maximal likelihood inference, which, remarkably, only…
This paper shows how data science can contribute to improving empirical research in economics by leveraging on large datasets and extracting information otherwise unsuitable for a traditional econometric approach. As a test-bed for our…
The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…
These lectures are based on material which was presented in the 2025 Summer school at Funda\c{c}\~ao Getulio Vargas. The aim of this series is to introduce graduate students with a little background in the field of dynamical systems and…
In this article, the notion of a mathematical model in science is attempted to be enlightened from several points of view. In particular, it is shown that mathematical models are introduced differently and used differently in different…
According to some recent analysis (M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E {\bf 69}, 066106, 2004 \cite{maya1}) of earthquake data, aftershock epicenters can be considered to represent the nodes of a network where the linking scheme depends…
We apply random matrix theory to study the impact of measurement uncertainty on dynamic mode decomposition. Specifically, when the measurements follow a normal probability density function, we show how the moments of that density propagate…
This opening editorial aims to interest researchers and encourage novel research in the closely related fields of sociophysics and computational social science. We briefly discuss challenges and possible research directions in the study of…
For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable…
Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…
Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake's potential impact, are directly related to the nature…
As a large-scale instance of dramatic collective behaviour, the 2005 French riots started in a poor suburb of Paris, then spread in all of France, lasting about three weeks. Remarkably, although there were no displacements of rioters, the…