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Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…
Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…
Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour.…
Faced with a dangerous epidemic humans will spontaneously social distance to reduce their risk of infection at a socio-economic cost. Compartmentalised epidemic models have been extended to include this endogenous decision making:…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the…
Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
In the absence of drugs and vaccines, policymakers use non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing to decrease rates of disease-causing contact, with the aim of reducing or delaying the epidemic peak. These measures carry…
An epidemic spreading in a network calls for a decision on the part of the network members: They should decide whether to protect themselves or not. Their decision depends on the trade-off between their perceived risk of being infected and…
Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic…
We consider a predator-prey population model with prey gathering together for defense purposes. A transmissible unrecoverable disease affects the prey. We characterize the system behavior, establishing that ultimately either only the…
Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…
When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These…
Epidemics have shaped human history, often with devastating consequences, motivating the development of mathematical models to understand and control their dynamics. Among the many aspects of epidemic behavior, the conditions that lead to…
A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight…