Related papers: Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger e…
We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns. We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous in all…
Random walk is one of the basic mechanisms found in many network applications. We study the epidemic spreading dynamics driven by biased random walks on complex networks. In our epidemic model, each time infected nodes constantly spread…
Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, which can inform policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models.…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
The initial phase of an epidemic is often characterized by an exponential increase in the number of infected individuals. In this paper, we predict the exponential spreading rate of an epidemic on a complex network. We first find an…
We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda>0$. The containment measures are…
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…
Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of efficient routing…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
We study the problem of estimating the parameters (i.e., infection rate and recovery rate) governing the spread of epidemics in networks. Such parameters are typically estimated by measuring various characteristics (such as the number of…
Interactions between commuting individuals can lead to large-scale spreading of rumors, ideas, or disease, even though the commuters have no net displacement. The emergent dynamics depend crucially on the commuting distribution of a…
In this survey we report some recent results in the mathematical modeling of epidemic phenomena through the use of kinetic equations. We initially consider models of interaction between agents in which social characteristics play a key role…
Resource diffusion is an ubiquitous phenomenon, but how it impacts epidemic spreading has received little study. We propose a model that couples epidemic spreading and resource diffusion in multiplex networks. The spread of disease in a…
Quarantine measures are one of the first lines of defense against the spread of infectious diseases. However, maintaining these measures over extended periods can be challenging due to a phenomenon known as quarantine fatigue. In this…
The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter $R_0$, whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, $R_0$ may change over…
The spread of infectious epidemics is often accelerated by super-spreader events. Understanding their effect is important, particularly in the context of standard epidemiological models, which require estimates for parameters such as $R_0$.…
Standard epidemic models exhibit one continuous, second order phase transition to macroscopic outbreaks. However, interventions to control outbreaks may fundamentally alter epidemic dynamics. Here we reveal how such interventions modify the…
We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective…