Related papers: Exploring chance in NCAA basketball
In this work, we extended a stochastic model for football leagues based on the team's potential [R. da Silva et al. Comput. Phys. Commun. \textbf{184} 661--670 (2013)] for making predictions instead of only performing a successful…
Network structure and its role in prediction are examined in competitive basketball at the team and player levels. Adversarial game outcome networks from NCAA Division I women's basketball from 2021 to 2024 are used to compute the common…
In fantasy sports, strategic thinking-not mere luck-often defines who wins and who falls short. As fantasy cricket grows in popularity across India, understanding whether success stems from skill or chance has become both an analytical and…
Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and…
A discrete-time stochastic process derived from a model of basketball is used to generalize any discrete distribution. The generalized distributions can have one or two more parameters than the parent distribution. Those derived from…
Large-scale datasets are increasingly being used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arisen as selection bias and other forms of distribution shifts often plague…
Many scientific and industrial processes produce data that is best analysed as vectors of relative values, often called compositions or proportions. The Dirichlet distribution is a natural distribution to use for composition or proportion…
In recent years, analytics has started to revolutionize the game of basketball: quantitative analyses of the game inform team strategy, management of player health and fitness, and how teams draft, sign, and trade players. In this review,…
Consider an important meeting to be held in a team-based organization. Taking availability constraints into account, an online scheduling poll is being used in order to decide upon the exact time of the meeting. Decisions are to be taken…
Real-time probability forecasts for binary outcomes are routine in sports, online experimentation, medicine, and finance. Retrospective narratives, however, often hinge on pathwise extremes: for example, a forecast that becomes "90%…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define a notion of computable randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
Causal models are notoriously difficult to validate because they make untestable assumptions regarding confounding. New scientific experiments offer the possibility of evaluating causal models using prediction performance. Prediction…
In this paper, we examine team ball sports to investigate how the likelihood of weaker teams winning against stronger ones, referred to as underdog achievement, is influenced by inherent randomness factors that affect match outcomes in such…
Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is…
Scoring in a basketball game is a process highly dynamic and non-linear type. The level of NBA teams improve each season. They incorporate to their rosters the best players in the world. These and other mechanisms, make the scoring in the…
We discuss individual components of the college football Bowl Championship Series, compare with a simple algorithm defined by random walks on a biased graph, attempt to predict whether the proposed changes will truly lead to increased BCS…
Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…
The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…
In this paper, a new continuous scoring system for soccer is proposed, based on the proportion of time that a team is winning, losing or tied. Several simulations are made applying this technique to complete seasons of different leagues. As…
Handball has received growing interest during the last years, including academic research for many different aspects of the sport. On the other hand modelling the outcome of the game has attracted less interest mainly because of the…