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The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-17 Thilo A. Schmitt , Desislava Chetalova , Rudi Schäfer , Thomas Guhr

We study optimal taxation when citizens are not fully confident that the government will transform tax revenue into useful public goods. In an otherwise standard Ramsey framework, a representative agent values a public good financed by…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-17 Emin Ablyatifov , Georgy Lukyanov

We theorize the financial health of a company and the risk of its default. A company is financially healthy as long as its equilibrium in the financial system is maintained, which depends on the cost attributable to the probability that…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-21 Gianmarco Bet , Francesco Dainelli , Eugenio Fabrizi

This paper shows that with mechanistic primary budget rules and with some simple assumptions on interest rates the well-known debt dynamics equation transforms into the infamous logistic map. The logistic map has very peculiar and rich…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2014-02-11 Jussi Ilmari Lindgren

We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-01-01 Yaneer Bar-Yam , Jean Langlois-Meurinne , Mari Kawakatsu , Rodolfo Garcia

We study a dynamical model of interconnected firms which allows for certain market imperfections and frictions, restricted here to be myopic price forecasts and slow adjustment of production. Whereas the standard rational equilibrium is…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-22 Julius Bonart , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Augustin Landier , David Thesmar

We adress the maximization problem of expected utility from terminal wealth. The special feature of this paper is that we consider a financial market where the price process of risky assets can have a default time. Using dynamic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-07-13 Thomas Lim , Marie-Claire Quenez

We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-10-14 Evangelos F. Magirou

We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-04-01 Gechun Liang , Eva Lütkebohmert , Wei Wei

In this paper, we consider a financial market with assets exposed to some risks inducing jumps in the asset prices, and which can still be traded after default times. We use a default-intensity modeling approach, and address in this…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-10-21 Thomas Lim , Marie-Claire Quenez

We consider the optimal investment problem when the traded asset may default, causing a jump in its price. For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion, we compute indifference prices for defaultable bonds, as well as a price for…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-03-02 Tetsuya Ishikawa , Scott Robertson

We study financial networks with debt contracts and credit default swaps between specific pairs of banks. Given such a financial system, we want to decide which of the banks are in default, and how much of their liabilities can these…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-10-11 Pál András Papp , Roger Wattenhofer

In this paper, I consider a simple heterogeneous agents model of a production economy with uncertain climate change and examine constrained efficient carbon taxation. If there are frictionless, complete financial markets, the simple model…

General Economics · Economics 2022-10-18 Felix Kübler

In our model, private actors with interbank cash flows similar to, but nore general than (Carmona, Fouque, Sun, 2013) borrow from the outside economy at a certain interest rate, controlled by the central bank, and invest in risky assets.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-09 Aditya Maheshwari , Andrey Sarantsev

We discuss a class of debt management problems in a stochastic environment model. We propose a model for the debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio where the government interventions via fiscal policies affect the public debt and the…

General Economics · Economics 2021-07-23 Matteo Brachetta , Claudia Ceci

We study how governments promote social welfare through the design of contracting environments. We model the regulation of contracting as default delegation: the government chooses a delegation set of contract terms it is willing to…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-17 Zoë Hitzig , Benjamin Niswonger

During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-01 Marco Lagi , Yaneer Bar-Yam

This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-03-22 Pascal Michaillat , Emmanuel Saez

The paper studies a system of Hamilton-Jacobi equations, arising from a stochastic optimal debt management problem in an infinite time horizon with exponential discount, modeled as a noncooperative interaction between a borrower and a pool…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-29 Rossana Capuani , Steven Gilmore , Khai T. Nguyen

The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method.…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 A. De Martino , M. Marsili , I. Perez Castillo